Gold prices rose by about 2% last week, reaching 4,245 dollars on Thursday, the highest level since October 20. The metal gained nearly 9% from the October 28 low of 3,887 dollars to Thursday’s peak at 4,245 dollars, before pulling back to 4,032 dollars on Friday—a 5% decline from peak to trough. These places gold within a volatility range of 300 to 400 dollars. More importantly, a strong resistance level has formed near 4,200 dollars, where a triple top pattern emerged over three consecutive days, indicating selling pressure and profit-taking whenever prices approach this level. Gold remains up about 53% year-to-date and is still trading above the psychological level of 4,000 dollars, which is considered positive.
The main factor weighing on the yellow metal is the sharp reduction in market expectations for a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 10 meeting, with probability of falling below 50%, compared to more than 90% a month ago. This shift followed a series of hawkish statements from several Fed officials in recent weeks.
Several persistent factors continue to support gold’s outlook for the coming period, including:
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, between the United States and Venezuela, and rising friction between Japan and China.
- Increasing political pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump on the Federal Reserve, along with strong criticism from White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, who accused Jerome Powell of costing the U.S. economy hundreds of billions in growth and thousands of jobs, calling for his resignation.
- Inflation risks, with the inflation rate still near 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target.
- Continued central bank gold purchases.
- Declining investor confidence in major fiat currencies such as the dollar, euro, yen, and pound.
- Continued trade tensions under the Trump administration, including support for legislation imposing sanctions on Russia’s trading partners, allowing tariffs of up to 500% on countries importing energy from Russia—keeping tariffs a central theme of U.S. trade policy.
From a technical perspective, the 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages remain aligned in a bullish formation, with the 20-day above the 50-day and the 50-day above the 200-day, indicating a medium- to long-term upward trend. In the near term, however, prices may retreat toward a key support level at 3,954 dollars, corresponding to the 50-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index currently stands at 48, reflecting negative momentum for gold.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
