Crude oil prices have experienced high volatility since the beginning of the year to date, rising to USD 66.82 per barrel yesterday, their highest level since September 30, 2025. This represents an increase of around 6% from the start of the year, following a negative performance last year when prices declined by approximately 19%. It is currently trading near the $64.50 level.
The main driver behind this notable rise is, naturally, the escalation of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, alongside cautious anticipation of a potential U.S. strike inside Iran amid ongoing widespread domestic protests. The U.S. administration has threatened to intervene to protect Iranian citizens if the regime continues its crackdown and violence against the population. In response, the Iranian regime warned that it would target U.S. military bases located in the Gulf region should such an action occur, a development that could add a risk premium of between USD 3 and USD 5 per barrel.
In addition, concerns persist over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which represents a vital artery for the global energy market, through which supplies equivalent to around 20% of global oil demand pass, as well as more than a quarter of seaborne oil trade. Furthermore, U.S. President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 25% on Iran’s trading partners, with China being one of Iran’s most significant partners. This puts the U.S.–China trade truce, agreed upon by both sides last October, at risk—especially given that Iranian oil currently represents a key pillar for China’s independent refining sector. This prompted a response from China, which stated that it would defend its economic interests and would not stand idle in the face of any unilateral measures.
On the other hand, a key factor continues to weigh negatively on crude oil prices, namely the abundance of supply from outside OPEC+, particularly from the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.
From a technical perspective, there is convergence between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and any bullish crossover could signal a continuation of the upward trend in crude oil prices. The next key challenge for oil lies in reaching the psychological and resistance level at USD 70 per barrel, last recorded on September 26 of last year. The Relative Strength Index stands at 59, pointing to positive momentum, while the MACD is trading above its signal line, further confirming the bullish momentum for this asset.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
