The most important events of the past week

The Most Important Events of the Past Week 

By Samir Al Khoury,

United States of America 

• The Producer Price Index fell on an annual basis to 2.2%, which is lower than both expectations (2.3%) and the previous reading (2.7%). 

• The headline CPI fell on an annual basis to 2.9%, which is lower than both expectations and the previous reading (3.0%). The core CPI (which excludes food and energy) also recorded 3.2% on an annual basis, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (3.3%). 

• US crude oil inventories rose by 1.357 million barrels, which is higher than expectations (-1.900M) and the previous reading (-3.728M). 

• The core retail sales index (excluding auto sales) recorded a growth of 0.4% on a monthly basis, which is higher than expectations (0.1%) but lower than the previous reading (0.5%). The retail sales index also increased on a monthly basis, recording growth of 1.0%, which is higher than expectations (0.4%) and the previous reading (-0.2%). 

• The Initial Jobless Claims Index fell to 227K, below both expectations (236K) and the previous reading (234K). 

• The Industrial Production Index fell on a monthly basis, contracting by 0.6%, below expectations (-0.3%) and the previous reading (0.3%). 

• The Empire State Manufacturing Index in New York State rose to contract by 4.70 points, above expectations (-5.90) and the previous reading (-6.60). 

• The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell to contract by 7.0 points, below both expectations (5.4) and the previous reading (13.9). 

• The Building Permits Index fell to 1.396M, below both expectations (1.430M) and the previous reading (1.454M). 

• The Michigan Consumer Confidence Index rose to 67.8 points, above expectations (66.7) and the previous reading (66.4). 

Eurozone 

• The GDP growth rate in the second quarter of this year was 0.6%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous reading (0.4%). 

• The Industrial Production rate contracted by 0.1% on a monthly basis, lower than expectations (0.4%) but higher than the previous reading (-0.9%). 

United Kingdom 

• The headline CPI rate was 2.2% on a yearly basis, lower than expectations (2.3%) but higher than the previous reading (2.0%). The core CPI (which excludes food and energy) also fell on a yearly basis to 3.3%, lower than both expectations (3.4%) and the previous reading (3.5%). 

• The average earnings rate including bonuses fell to 4.5%, lower than the previous reading (5.7%). 

• The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, lower than both expectations (4.5%) and the previous reading (4.4%). 

• Industrial production rose on a monthly basis, recording growth of 0.8%, which exceeded both expectations (0.1%) and the previous reading (0.3%). 

• Retail sales on a monthly basis recorded growth of 0.5%, which is below expectations (0.6%) but higher than the previous reading (-0.9%). 

• GDP on a quarterly basis recorded growth of 0.6%, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (0.7%). 

New Zealand 

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points from 5.50% to 5.25%, for the first time since March 2020. 

Australia 

• Employment change increased to 58.2K new jobs, which exceeded both expectations (20.2K) and the previous reading (52.3K). 

• The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, which exceeded both expectations and the previous reading (4.1%). 

Japan 

• The GDP index rose on an annual basis in the second quarter of this year by 3.1%, which exceeded both expectations (2.1%) and the previous reading (-2.3%). 

China 

• The new loans index fell to 260 billion yuan, which was lower than both expectations (1,280 billion yuan) and the previous reading (2,130 billion yuan). 

• The fixed-asset investment index fell on an annual basis to record growth of 3.6%, which was lower than both expectations and the previous reading (3.9%). 

• The industrial production index declined on an annual basis to record growth of 5.1%, which was lower than both expectations (5.2%) and the previous reading (5.3%). 

• The unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, which was higher than both expectations (5.1%) and the previous reading (5.0%). 

• The retail sales index rose on an annual basis to record 2.7%, which was higher than both expectations (2.6%) and the previous reading (2.0%). 

The Most Important Events of This Week 

This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators: 

• On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China’s key lending rate will be released, in addition to the consumer price index in both the Eurozone and Canada. 

• On Wednesday, markets will await the export and import indices in Japan, US crude oil inventories, and the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. 

• On Thursday, markets will await the manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indices in Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, Britain, and the United States, as well as the initial jobless claims and existing home sales indices in the United States, in addition to the consumer confidence index in the Eurozone. 

• Finally, on Friday, the consumer price index in Japan will be released, as will the building permits and new home sales indices in the United States, and retail sales in Canada. 

The markets will also await the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, seeking indications about the path of interest rates in the coming period. 

Technical Analysis: 

EUR/USD: 

If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0994, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0940, 1.0854, and 1.0801. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.1079, 1.1132, and 1.1218. 

GBP/USD: 

If the pound against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.2877, it has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2808, 1.2677, and 1.2608. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.3007, 1.3076, and 1.3207. 

USD/JPY: 

If the pivot point of 147.66 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 145.93, 144.33, and 142.60. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels of 149.26, 150.99, and 152.58. 

GOLD: 

If the pivot point of 2516 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 2484, 2430, and 2398. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels of 2569, 2601, and 2655. 

BRENT CRUDE OIL: 

If the pivot point of 80.23 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 78.06, 76.45, and 74.28. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels of 81.84, 84.01, and 85.62. 

US30: 

If the pivot point of 40,331 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 39,806, 38,819, and 38,294. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels of 41,318, 41,843, and 42,830 

Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

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