Last week saw several key economic indicators across major economies. In the United States, GDP decreased to 2.8%, while the number of non-farm private sector jobs rose to 233,000, indicating strength in the labor market. However, the employment report showed only 12,000 new jobs added, raising concerns. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%, while average hourly wages increased by 0.4%. In the Eurozone, GDP recorded a growth of 0.9% and inflation rose to 2.0%. In Australia, the consumer price index increased to 2.8%, while retail sales declined to 0.1%. In Japan, the central bank kept interest rates steady at 0.25%. In China, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 points, reflecting stability in economic activity.
Market Analysis
U.S. Dollar vs. Swedish Krona
The U.S. dollar against the Swedish krona continues its upward trend, reaching 10.7397 on Friday, November 1, the highest level since August 2, 2024. The USD/SEK pair has risen about 7% since the low of September 30, 2024, when it was 10.0274, to the peak recorded on Friday. It has also increased by approximately 7% since the beginning of the year.
If the pivot point of 10.5897 is broken, there is a possibility of targeting support levels at 10.5498, 10.4851, and 10.4452. Conversely, if the pivot is surpassed, it could target resistance levels at 10.6544, 10.6943, and 10.7590.
Nvidia
Nvidia’s stock is trading in an upward trend, having increased by about 175% since the beginning of the year. Markets are anticipating the release of Nvidia’s financial results for the third quarter of this year on November 20, 2024, with expectations of earnings of $0.74 per share, down from $4.02 in the previous reading. For revenues, markets expect them to reach $32.95 billion, compared to $18.12 billion in the previous reading.
Gold
Gold prices reached $2,790 last week, marking the highest level ever, driven by expectations of further cuts in U.S. interest rates, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and global central banks’ purchases of gold.
If the pivot point of $2,750 is broken, it may target support levels at $2,726, $2,700, and $2,676. Conversely, if the pivot is exceeded, it may aim for resistance levels at $2,777, $2,800, and $2,828.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 index recorded 20,033 points, having risen by approximately 20% since the beginning of the year. The positive momentum for this index seems to be continuing, especially with expectations of further cuts in U.S. interest rates in the near future, in addition to major companies outperforming analysts’ expectations, as markets await Nvidia’s results on November 20.
Key Events This Week
Markets are awaiting several important indicators and economic data this week:
• Today, the manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone and factory orders in the U.S. will be released.
• On Tuesday, markets will look for the interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia, with expectations of keeping rates at 4.35%. The services PMIs for Australia, the UK, and the U.S. will also be released, along with the non-manufacturing PMI from ISM in the U.S.
• On Wednesday, markets will watch for the services PMI in Japan and the Eurozone, the construction PMI in the UK, the Ivey PMI in Canada, and U.S. crude oil inventories.
• On Thursday, markets are looking forward to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut to levels of 4.50% and 4.75%. Attention will be on the speech and tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding the interest rate path ahead. Markets are also anticipating the interest rate decision from the Bank of England, expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%. Additionally, China’s foreign currency reserves, export and import indicators, Eurozone retail sales, and U.S. unemployment claims will be released.
• Finally, on Friday, household spending in Japan, changes in employment and unemployment rates in Canada, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the U.S. will be released.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
