After Bitcoin prices declined by around 6% last year, positive momentum appears to have dominated since the beginning of the year to date. Bitcoin has risen for the fifth consecutive session, reaching a level of $94,800 yesterday, its highest since November 17, 2025, supported by improved market sentiment, particularly given its relative correlation with artificial intelligence–related stocks. Bitcoin has also gained approximately 18% from the low recorded on November 21, 2025, near $80,500, to yesterday’s peak.
Expectations point to the continuation of positive momentum for Bitcoin this year for several reasons:
- Increased demand for what is known as “digital gold,” namely Bitcoin, amid heightened uncertainty related to geopolitical developments and escalation in Venezuela.
- An accommodative monetary policy environment, as the U.S. Federal Reserve implemented three interest rate cuts last year totaling 75 basis points. In addition, the Dot Plot projections indicated one rate cut during the current year, while markets are pricing in two cuts. It is also worth noting that Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, which increases the likelihood of appointing a Federal Reserve chair close to President Trump. This could lead to deeper rate cuts, with interest rates potentially falling to levels between 1% and 2%. Such a scenario would support demand for Bitcoin, given that it is a non-yielding asset.
- Supportive U.S. regulations for stablecoins, particularly initiatives such as the Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act, which aim to regulate the issuance of U.S. dollar–backed stablecoins and impose clear reserve requirements and banking oversight. These measures enhance institutional confidence in cryptocurrencies, especially for use as a payment and settlement tool.
- Continued inflows into Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
As for upcoming challenges, the main hurdle for Bitcoin lies in breaking through the resistance level at the 100-day moving average near $100,000, followed by a move toward $106,600, which represents the 200-day moving average. Beyond that, Bitcoin would need to surpass the record high of $126,200 recorded on October 6 and hold above it. Achieving this could open the door to targeting new levels around $130,000 and $140,000 in the medium term, provided that supportive factors and investment inflows persist.
From a technical perspective, indicators support the continuation of the upward trend in Bitcoin prices. There is a clear convergence between the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average, with the potential for a golden cross, which would further strengthen the case for continued gains. The Relative Strength Index currently stands at 65, indicating strong bullish momentum, alongside a bullish crossover between the MACD indicator and the signal line, confirming the persistence of positive momentum.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
