Last week saw the release of a broad set of global economic data that highlighted clear divergence across major economies. In the United States, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed continued concern about inflation, with hints that interest rates could be raised if inflation remains elevated. This came alongside a notable slowdown in GDP growth and an increase in core personal consumption expenditures, pointing to persistent inflationary pressures despite some softness in activity and consumption indicators. In contrast, the labor market remained resilient, with a decline in jobless claims and a sharp drawdown in crude oil inventories. In the euro area, data showed a relative improvement in purchasing managers’ indices, particularly in manufacturing, despite a contraction in industrial production. In the United Kingdom, a mixed picture emerged, with rising unemployment and slower wage growth offset by a strong rebound in retail sales, resilient PMIs, and the recording of a budget surplus in January. In Switzerland, the economy showed modest improvement as GDP returned to growth. Canada experienced further easing in inflation, reinforcing expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy stance. In Australia, the labor market remained solid despite a limited slowdown in employment growth, alongside some weakness in PMI readings. In Japan, data pointed to gradual improvement in economic activity and exports, despite slower growth and subdued inflation, underscoring the fragile nature of the recovery.
Market Analysis
GBP/USD
After reaching 1.3869 on Tuesday, January 27, 2026—the highest level since September 14, 2021—the GBP/USD pair declined to 1.3434 on Thursday, February 19, before closing at 1.3471. Recently released UK economic data were relatively weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.2%, above the previous reading of 5.1% and marking the highest level in five years. In addition, wage growth, including bonuses, slowed to 4.2%, below both expectations and the prior reading of 4.6%. On the positive side, retail sales improved noticeably, PMIs remained resilient, and the UK recorded a budget surplus in January. The RSI currently stands near 42, indicating negative momentum for GBP/USD. Moreover, a bearish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line reinforces the likelihood of continued downside momentum.
NVIDIA
NVIDIA shares are up around 2% year-to-date. Markets are awaiting the company’s earnings release on Wednesday, February 25, 2026. Consensus expectations point to earnings of USD 1.51 per share, compared with USD 0.89 previously. Revenue is expected to reach USD 65.41 billion, up from USD 39.3 billion in the prior reading. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line, suggesting positive momentum for the stock. The RSI is currently around 55, also indicating positive momentum.
Oil
Crude oil prices rose by around 6% over the past week, reaching USD 72.34 per barrel on Friday—the highest level since July 31, 2025. Prices are now up approximately 21% from January 7, 2026, low of USD 59.80, and around 18% year-to-date, trading above USD 72 per barrel. The primary driver of this rally remains heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, amid cautious anticipation of a potential US strike inside Iran. In addition, concerns over a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for global energy markets through which around 20% of global oil demand and more than a quarter of seaborne oil trade pass—have added a risk premium to prices. Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories fell by 9.014 million barrels last week, a much larger draw than expected and well below the previous week’s build. The RSI currently stands near 63, reflecting strong bullish momentum, while the MACD shows a bullish crossover, providing a positive technical signal for oil prices.
CAC 40 Index
The French CAC 40 index continues to advance, reaching 8,529 points on Friday—its highest level on record. The index has risen about 6% from January 28, 2026, low of 8,021 points and is up around 4% year-to-date, closing Friday at 8,515 points. This strong performance has been driven by solid earnings results from most French companies reporting their latest quarterly figures so far. In addition, expectations of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, particularly amid easing French inflation—which slowed to 0.3%, below expectations and the previous reading—have supported equity markets. Better-than-expected French economic data and relatively attractive valuations compared with US equities, especially the S&P 500, have further enhanced the appeal of French stocks. The RSI is currently around 73, placing the index in overbought territory and signaling strong bullish momentum. A bullish MACD crossover further supports the case for continued positive momentum.
Key Events This Week
Markets will be watching several important economic indicators and data releases this week.
On Monday, US factory orders are due.
On Tuesday, investors will focus on China’s benchmark lending rate and US consumer confidence.
On Wednesday, attention will turn to CPI data from Australia and the euro area, along with US crude oil inventory figures.
On Thursday, euro area consumer confidence and US initial jobless claims will be released. Finally, on Friday, markets will digest Tokyo CPI data, GDP figures from Switzerland and Canada, and US producer price inflation.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
