Last week witnessed mixed performance across global economies. U.S. data showed strong economic growth, with third-quarter GDP exceeding expectations, supported by higher consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure. However, momentum weakened in some industrial and consumer indicators, such as durable goods orders and consumer confidence, alongside only limited improvement in the labor market. In contrast, the UK economy recorded weak growth in line with expectations, while the Canadian economy showed a monthly contraction in GDP. In Japan, data reflected an economic slowdown, with lower inflation and industrial production, offset by a slight improvement in retail sales. In China, the People’s Bank of China kept its loan prime rates unchanged, signaling the continuation of a cautious easing approach aimed at supporting growth without additional monetary stimulus for now.
Market analysis
U.S. dollar / Chinese yuan
The U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan fell to 7.0011 on Friday, its lowest level since October 1, 2024, down around 5% since the beginning of the year to date. This decline comes amid broad selling pressure on the U.S. dollar against most major currencies in recent weeks, particularly in an environment of U.S. interest rate cuts and market pricing for two rate cuts next year. In contrast, the People’s Bank of China kept loan rates unchanged, reinforcing its cautious easing stance to support growth without further monetary stimulus at this stage.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at around 21 points, placing the pair in oversold territory and indicating negative momentum for the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan. In addition, a bearish crossover is visible between the MACD line and the signal line, reinforcing the continuation of negative momentum.
Platinum
Platinum prices continue their upward trend, reaching USD 2,471 on Friday, the highest level on record. Platinum has risen by around 168% since the beginning of the year to date, outperforming most other assets, including bitcoin and global equity indices, as well as gold, which has gained 73%. Despite strong competition with silver in terms of annual performance, with silver posting gains of around 175%, expectations continue to point to further upside in platinum prices in the coming period.
Platinum is currently supported by several factors, most notably a persistent supply deficit, strong industrial and investment demand, a more accommodative monetary policy environment from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and increased investor inflows into platinum-backed exchange-traded funds. The RSI currently stands at 88 points, indicating overbought conditions and strong market momentum. A bullish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line further supports the continuation of positive momentum in platinum prices.
S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 index rose by around 1.40% last week to close at 6,930 points on Friday, while also recording a new all-time high during the same session at 6,946 points. The index is up approximately 18% from the beginning of the year to date. This positive momentum in U.S. equities has been driven by several factors, most notably the U.S. interest rate cut environment, with markets pricing in two rate cuts next year, in addition to strong momentum led by technology stocks linked to artificial intelligence, despite still-elevated valuations.
The RSI currently stands at 61 points, indicating bullish momentum, while the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line, reinforcing the positive outlook for the index.
Key events this week
Markets are closely watching several important economic indicators and data releases this week.
On Monday, markets will focus on U.S. pending home sales and U.S. crude oil inventories.
On Tuesday, attention will turn to the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting.
On Wednesday, markets will monitor the manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices, along with the Caixin manufacturing PMI in China, in addition to U.S. jobless claims data.
Finally, on Friday, manufacturing PMI data will be released for Australia, the United Kingdom, the euro area, and the United States.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
