Last week saw a series of important global economic data releases and policy decisions. In the United States, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, while the dot plot signaled only one additional rate cut next year. The decision revealed a divided vote and was accompanied by the launch of a Treasury Bills purchase program worth USD 40 billion. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to a gradual slowdown in the labor market alongside persistent inflation risks. Economic data were mixed, with job openings rising to 7.658 million, crude oil inventories declining, initial jobless claims increasing to 236,000, and the trade deficit narrowing to its lowest level in five years at USD 52.80 billion. In the UK, monthly GDP contracted by 0.1%. Switzerland, Canada, and Australia all kept interest rates unchanged as expected, while Australia recorded a loss of 21.3 thousand jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. In Japan, GDP contracted by 2.3% in Q3 for the first time in six quarters. In China, economic data were mixed, with import growth slowing to 1.9%, exports rising by 5.9%, inflation increasing to 0.7%, and producer prices declining by 0.1%.
Market Analysis
AUD/USD
The Reserve Bank of Australia decided on Tuesday to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.60%, as expected, with expectations that rates will remain at this level throughout next year. Recent Australian economic data point to resilience in economic performance.
The Australian dollar rose to 0.6686 against the US dollar on Wednesday, December 10, marking its highest level since September 17, 2025. The pair has gained about 4% from its November 21, 2025, low of 0.6421 and is up roughly 8% year-to-date.
From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 65, indicating positive momentum. The MACD also shows a bullish crossover between the MACD line (blue) and the signal line (orange), reinforcing the positive outlook for the pair.
Nike
Nike shares are down around 11% year-to-date. Markets are awaiting the company’s Q3 earnings release on Thursday, December 18, 2025. Earnings per share are expected to come in at USD 0.50, compared with USD 0.78 in the previous quarter.
Revenue is expected to reach USD 11.98 billion, down from USD 12.40 billion previously.
Technically, the RSI stands near 59, pointing to positive momentum. The MACD indicator also shows a bullish crossover, supporting the positive momentum in the stock.
Gold
Gold prices rose by approximately 2.43% last week, reaching USD 4,354, their highest level since October 21, 2025, and posting gains of around 64% year-to-date.
Fundamental and technical indicators continue to support further upside in gold prices, as the key supportive factors remain in place, most notably:
• A US interest rate cutting environment,
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine despite negotiations, as well as rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela,
• Continued purchases by central banks,
• Inflation remaining near 3%, above the 2% target.
Technically, the 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages remain well aligned, with the 20-day average above the 50-day, which in turn is above the 200-day, signaling a medium- and long-term uptrend.
The RSI currently stands at 69, reflecting continued positive momentum.
Dow Jones Index
The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a new all-time high on Friday and rose by about 1.15% over the past week, outperforming the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, though it lagged slightly behind the Russell 2000, which gained around 1.20% and hit a record high. The Dow is up roughly 14% year-to-date.
The index’s gains are largely driven by portfolio rotation, as investors shift toward value stocks and away from technology stocks linked to artificial intelligence. This comes amid concerns that AI-related capital expenditures may exceed expectations for some tech companies, such as Oracle, whose shares fell about 13% last week after reporting weaker-than-expected revenues.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on Wednesday to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, also supported the index.
Technically, the RSI is at 62, indicating positive momentum. The MACD shows a bullish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line, supporting a constructive outlook for the index.
Key Events This Week
Markets are closely watching several important economic indicators and events this week:
• Monday: China releases data on house prices, fixed asset investment, retail sales, industrial production, and unemployment. Switzerland publishes producer price data, the euro area releases industrial production figures, and the United States reports the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Canada also releases CPI data.
• Tuesday: PMI data for manufacturing and services are released in Australia, Japan, the euro area, the UK, and the United States. The US also publishes retail sales, nonfarm employment, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.
• Wednesday: Japan releases export and import data. The UK and the euro area publish CPI figures, and the United States reports crude oil inventory data.
• Thursday: The Bank of England announces its interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25-basis-point cut from 4.00% to 3.75%. The European Central Bank is also expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.00%. In the United States, CPI data, weekly jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index are released.
• Friday: Investors await the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25-basis-point hike to 0.75%. Japan also releases CPI data, while the UK publishes retail sales figures. In the United States, Core PCE inflation—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—is released, along with existing home sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Canada also releases retail sales data.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
