Gold prices have declined by about 11% from the peak recorded on October 20 at $4,382 to the low reached on October 28 at $3,887. However, the metal remains up roughly 53% year-to-date. Gold has been trading in a horizontal sideways range between $3,900 and $4,050 for more than a week, searching for a clear direction — either upward or downward.
Despite the rise in the U.S. Dollar Index, which surpassed the key psychological resistance level of 100 to reach 100.36 on Wednesday, November 5, 2025 — its highest level since May 29, 2025 — and the improvement in several U.S. economic indicators that exceeded analysts’ expectations, such as the ADP non-farm employment change and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, gold prices have remained relatively steady around the $4,000 level.
This resilience comes even as market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the December 10 meeting dropped to around 60%, compared with 90% previously.
Several factors continue to provide fundamental support for gold prices in the coming period, including:
- Continued central bank purchases — notably, the National Bank of Kazakhstan led buyers in the third quarter of this year, while the Central Bank of Brazil resumed purchases after more than four years.
- The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its thirty-eighth day.
- Persistent geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as between the United States and Venezuela.
- Growing political pressure from President Donald Trump on the Federal Reserve amid internal divisions over monetary policy direction.
- Inflationary risks, with the inflation rate still hovering around 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target.
- Continued trade tensions between the Trump administration and several countries, with tariffs remaining a central theme of its trade policy.
- Declining investor confidence in fiat currencies such as the dollar, euro, yen, and pound.
From a technical perspective, if gold breaks above $4,050, it could target the next resistance level near the 20-day moving average at $4,085. Conversely, a break below $3,900 could lead to a decline toward the 50-day moving average support at $3,877.
Importantly, the moving averages for 20, 50, and 200 days remain in a bullish alignment, with the 20-day average above the 50-day, and the 50-day above the 200-day — reflecting a medium-term positive technical outlook for gold.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
