Bitcoin has been trading within a horizontal range between 80,000 and 89,000 dollars for the past three weeks, without a clear directional trend, either upward or downward. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has declined by approximately 9%, amid uncertainty dominating the cryptocurrency market. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around the 84,000-dollar level.
The primary factor exerting pressure on Bitcoin is the trade war and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on various countries, along with retaliatory tariffs. This has led investors to move their funds away from high-risk assets and into safe-haven assets, primarily gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, given the uncertainty surrounding the trade war.
Yesterday, Trump announced a new set of tariffs on several countries, with the following rates:
- 34% on imports from China
- 20% on imports from the European Union
- 10% on imports from the United Kingdom
- 26% on imports from India
- 32% on imports from Taiwan
- 46% on imports from Vietnam
- 10% on imports from all other countries
Bitcoin has successfully surpassed the 20-day moving average (gray) at 84,548 dollars. The next major challenge is to test the resistance level at the 200-day moving average (yellow), which stands at 86,413 dollars, followed by the 50-day moving average (blue) at 87,706 dollars.
There is a noticeable convergence between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and any bearish breakout between them could signal a downtrend for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 46 points, indicating negative momentum for Bitcoin. On the other hand, the MACD indicator is showing somewhat positive momentum, as the MACD line (blue) is surpassing the signal line (orange).
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
