By Samir Al Khoury,

Crude oil prices have risen by approximately 9% since the low on 5 August this year, which recorded $75.10, to current levels of about $82. This marks an increase of about 6% since the beginning of the year.

Yesterday, OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 135 thousand barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day, marking the first revision since July 2023. This adjustment is primarily due to a reassessment of demand from China.

Despite this, crude oil prices are experiencing somewhat positive momentum, driven by several factors, including:

• Continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Red Sea, as well as the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war.

• Improvements in some economic indicators in China, the world’s largest oil importer, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which recorded an annual growth of 0.5% last week, surpassing expectations (0.3%) and the previous reading (0.2%).

• Market expectations of three US interest rate cuts this year.

From a technical perspective, crude oil prices are currently hovering near $82. The primary challenge lies in reaching the $82.78 level, which corresponds to the 50-day moving average. Technical indicators suggest that crude oil prices may continue to rise in the near future for several reasons:

• The bullish or golden cross between the 50-day moving average (blue) and the 200-day moving average (yellow) at $82.34 remains intact, indicating an upward trend for crude oil prices.

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 53 points, signaling upward momentum for crude oil prices.

• The MACD indicator (blue) is crossing above the SIGNAL LINE (orange), providing further positive momentum for crude oil prices.

Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

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