Last week, several economies around the world released significant economic data. In the United States, the Empire State Manufacturing Index increased, while the number of unemployment claims rose slightly. The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index declined, while U.S. oil inventories increased. On the other hand, the Consumer Confidence Index and the Services PMI both showed a decline. In the Eurozone, both the Manufacturing and Services PMIs showed a slight decrease. In the UK, income and unemployment rates improved, while consumer prices increased. In Canada, consumer prices also rose. In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates, and New Zealand also reduced them. In Japan, GDP and exports grew more than expected, while imports and consumer prices rose. Finally, in China, the People’s Bank of China kept the key lending rates unchanged as expected.
Market Analysis
AUD/USD Pair
The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered interest rates by 25 basis points last week, from 4.35% to 4.10%, marking the first rate cut in four years. Since the low of February 3, 2025, at 0.6087, the AUD/USD pair has risen about 5%, reaching a peak of 0.6408 on Monday, February 21. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 59, indicating continued positive momentum for the pair. Additionally, the MACD shows the blue line above the orange Signal Line, reinforcing the upward momentum.
NVIDIA
NVIDIA’s stock has fallen by about 1% since the beginning of the year. Markets are anticipating the company’s earnings report on Thursday, February 26, 2025, with expected earnings of $0.84 per share, up from $0.52 per share in the previous report. Revenues are expected to reach $38.02 billion, up from $22.1 billion previously. The RSI currently stands at 50, indicating a neutral stance, suggesting uncertainty regarding the stock’s direction. However, the MACD shows a bullish crossover between the blue MACD line and the orange Signal Line, providing a positive outlook for NVIDIA’s stock.
Gold
Gold reached a record high of $2,955 on Thursday, February 20, 2025, marking a 12% increase since the start of the year, outperforming high-risk assets like Bitcoin and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices. This reflects growing investor concerns, driving them to seek the traditional safe-haven asset, gold. Both fundamental and technical factors suggest that gold prices may continue to rise for several reasons, including high U.S. inflation, trade tensions, central bank purchases, and declining U.S. Treasury yields. The RSI stands at 71, indicating overbought conditions and suggesting continued bullish momentum for gold. Furthermore, the MACD shows the blue line above the orange Signal Line, reinforcing the positive momentum for gold prices.
S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 has risen about 2% since the beginning of the year. It hit a record high of 6,147 points on Wednesday, February 19, 2025, but declined by 1.71% on Friday due to weak economic indicators such as the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, Services PMI, and Existing Home Sales, along with uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s trade policies. The MACD shows a bearish crossover between the blue MACD line and the orange Signal Line, indicating negative momentum for the index. Additionally, the RSI currently stands at 46, suggesting negative momentum.
Key Events This Week
Markets are expecting several important economic reports this week:
- Today, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released.
- On Tuesday, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index is anticipated.
- On Wednesday, the U.S. New Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventory reports are due.
- On Thursday, the U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, GDP, and Existing Home Sales data will be released.
- Finally, on Friday, the Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales in Japan, as well as the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and Canada’s GDP report will be published.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
