Last week featured several key global economic developments and policy decisions. In the United States, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range between 3.75% and 4.00%, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that another rate cut in December is no longer certain. On the data front, crude oil inventories fell more than expected, consumer confidence rose slightly, and pending home sales declined. In the Eurozone, ECB held interest rates steady at 2.00%, while GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, with headline inflation steady at 2.1%. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates to 2.25%. In Switzerland, retail sales rose 1.5%, surpassing expectations, while in Australia, annual inflation climbed to 3.2%. Japan’s central bank held interest rates steady at 0.50% as Tokyo’s consumer price index increased to 2.8%. Meanwhile, China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0, signaling contraction, though industrial profits rose 3.2% year-to-date.
Market Analysis
USD/JPY
The U.S. dollar–Japanese yen pair climbed on Thursday, reaching 154.45, its highest level since February 13, 2025, before closing at 154.00 on Friday. The pair has risen 4% from its low of 145.48 on September 17, 2025, to its recent peak but remains down about 2% year-to-date. This strong move is attributed to the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.50%, along with supportive fiscal and monetary policies from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government. These pro-stimulus measures complicate the BOJ’s efforts to contain inflation without raising rates. Additionally, foreign capital inflows into Japanese equities—at their highest since September 2024—and yen weakness above 154 per dollar have boosted investor appetite for Japanese assets. The RSI stands at 66, indicating positive momentum, while the MACD shows a bullish crossover, supporting continued upward momentum for the pair.
AMD
AMD shares have surged about 112% year-to-date. Markets are awaiting the company’s earnings report on Tuesday, November 4, 2025. Analysts expect earnings per share of $1.17, up from $0.92 previously, with revenue projected to rise to $8.73 billion from $6.82 billion. The RSI is currently at 69, reflecting strong bullish momentum, while the MACD shows a bullish crossover between the blue MACD line and the orange signal line, further supporting upward momentum in the stock.
Gold
Gold prices rose for the third consecutive month, gaining about 3.72% in October. Prices dropped 11% from their October 20 peak of $4,382 to the October 28 low of $3,887 before closing at $4,002 on Friday, the last trading day of the month. Despite a one-year trade truce between the U.S. and China, Powell’s cautious tone regarding further rate cuts, and a stronger U.S. dollar, gold managed to close above the key psychological level of $4,000. This is viewed positively, supported by ongoing central bank purchases, persistent geopolitical tensions—especially the unresolved Russia–Ukraine conflict—continued U.S. government shutdown now in its 34th day, and political pressure from President Donald Trump on the Federal Reserve amid internal division over monetary policy and inflation risks. With U.S. inflation still around 3%, above the 2% target, gold remains a hedge against inflation and policy uncertainty. Moreover, trade tensions and tariffs remain a central feature of Trump’s policies, while declining investor confidence in fiat currencies like the dollar, euro, yen, and pound continues to support gold demand. The RSI stands at 51, suggesting mild upward momentum.
Nikkei 225
The Nikkei 225 extended its rally, hitting an all-time high of 52,411 on Friday. The index has surged 70% from its April 7 low of 30,793 and is up 31% year-to-date, outperforming U.S., European, and Chinese markets. The RSI is around 75, indicating overbought conditions but strong bullish momentum. The MACD shows a bullish crossover, reinforcing the upward trend for the Nikkei 225.
Key Events This Week
This week, markets await several important economic data releases:
- Monday: Manufacturing PMIs from Australia, the UK, the Eurozone, and the U.S., along with China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland’s CPI, and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- Tuesday: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision (expected to hold at 3.60%), Japan’s Manufacturing PMI, and U.S. factory orders and job openings data.
- Wednesday: Services PMIs from Australia, the UK, the Eurozone, and the U.S., along with ADP private employment data and U.S. crude oil inventories.
- Thursday: The Bank of England’s interest rate decision (expected to remain at 4.00%), Japan’s Services PMI, Eurozone retail sales, and Canada’s Ivey PMI.
- Friday: Japan’s household spending, Canada’s employment and unemployment data, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the U.S.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
