The New Zealand dollar fell sharply against the U.S. dollar, reaching 0.5606 on Friday, November 7, 2025 — its lowest level since April 9, 2025. This drop represents a decline of about 7% from the peak recorded on September 17, 2025, at 0.6008, down to Friday’s bottom. Nevertheless, the pair remains up by roughly 1% year-to-date.
Recent New Zealand economic data points to ongoing weakness in economic performance, as:
• The unemployment rate rose to 5.3%, up from the previous reading of 5.2%.
• Employment change came in at 0.0%, below expectations (0.1%) and the previous reading (-0.2%).
• The monthly Commodity Price Index remains in contraction at -0.3%.
A key factor adding pressure on the NZD/USD pair has been the broad strengthening of the U.S. dollar against most major currencies, despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the uncertainty surrounding the American economic outlook due to the absence of key macroeconomic releases — particularly labor market and inflation data. Markets are also pricing in roughly a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in the Federal Reserve’s December 10 meeting.
Technical Outlook:
• Support: After breaking below the pivot point at 0.5637, the pair may target the next support levels at 0.5622, 0.5598, and 0.5583.
• Resistance: If the pair regains momentum above the pivot point, it may test resistance levels at 0.5661, 0.5676, and 0.5700.
Technical Indicators:
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 31, indicating bearish momentum.
• The Positive Directional Index (+DMI) stands at 12, while the Negative Directional Index (–DMI) is at 27, signaling a clear gap and strong selling pressure.
• The bearish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line also supports the continuation of the downward trend in NZD/USD.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
