The most important events of the past week

By Samir Al Khoury,

United States of America

• The services PMI fell to 55.0, below expectations (56.0) and the previous reading (55.3).

• The non-manufacturing PMI issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rose to 51.4, in line with expectations but higher than the previous reading (48.8).

• The initial jobless claims index fell to 233K, below expectations (241K) and the previous reading (250K).

• US crude oil inventories fell to 3.728 million barrels, below expectations  (-1.600M) and the previous reading (-3.436M).

Eurozone

• The services PMI rose to 51.9, in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (52.8).

• The Producer Price Index rose on an annual basis, recording a contraction of 3.2%, which exceeded expectations (-3.3%) and the previous reading (-4.1%).

United Kingdom

• The Services PMI rose to 52.5 points, which exceeded expectations (52.4) and the previous reading (52.1).

• The Construction PMI rose to 55.3 points, which exceeded expectations (52.5) ​​and the previous reading (52.2).

Australia

• The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep interest rates unchanged, with the main interest rate set at 4.35%, in line with market expectations.

• The Services PMI fell to 50.4 points, which is lower than expectations (50.8) and the previous reading (51.2).

Canada

• The services PMI fell to 57.6, below expectations (60.0) and the previous reading (62.5).

• The employment change rate fell to 2.8K new jobs, below expectations (-26.9K) and the previous reading (-1.4K).

• The unemployment rate recorded 6.4%, below expectations (6.5%) but in line with the previous reading.

China

• The services PMI from Caixin rose to 52.1, above expectations (51.4) and the previous reading (51.2).

• China’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $3.256 trillion, above expectations (3.250T) and the previous reading (3.222T).

• The exports index fell to 7.0%, below expectations (9.7%) and the previous reading (8.6%).

• Imports rose 7.2% YoY, beating expectations (3.5%) and the previous reading (-2.3%).

• Consumer price index rose 0.5% YoY, beating expectations (0.3%) and the previous reading (0.2%).

• Producer price index contracted 0.8% YoY, beating expectations (-0.9%) but in line with the previous reading.

The most important events of this week

This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:

• Today, the New Loans Index is released in China.

• On Tuesday, the markets are awaiting the income rates including bonuses and unemployment in Britain and the producer price index in the United States of America.

• On Wednesday, the markets are awaiting the interest rate decision issued by the New Zealand Central Bank amid expectations that it will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50%.

The consumer and producer price indices in Britain are released, as are the GDP and industrial production indices in the Eurozone, in addition to the consumer price index in the United States of America and the US crude oil inventories.

• As for Thursday, the markets are awaiting the GDP and industrial production indices in Japan, the employment and unemployment change rates in Australia, the fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales and unemployment rate in China, the GDP and industrial production indices in Britain, the producer price index in Switzerland, the retail sales indices, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia manufacturing, Empire State manufacturing in New York, and industrial production in the United States of America.

• Finally, on Friday, the UK retail sales index and the US building permits, and Michigan consumer confidence index will be released.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD: 

If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0934, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0860, 1.0806, and 1.0732. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0987, 1.1062, and 1.1116.

GBP/USD: 

The pound against the dollar, if it breaks the pivot point of 1.2745, has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2675, 1.2593, and 1.2523. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.2827, 1.2897, and 1.2979.

USD/JPY: 

If the pivot point of 145.39 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 142.88, 139.17, and 136.66. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 149.10, 151.60, and 155.32.

GOLD: 

If the pivot point of 2459 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2418, 2363, and 2322. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2514, 2555, and 2610.

BRENT CRUDE OIL:

If the pivot point of 78.18 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 76.53, 73.41 and 71.76. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 81.30, 82.95, and 86.07.

US30:

If the pivot point of 39,317 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 38,864, 38,088 and 37,635. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 40,093, 40,546, and 41,322.

Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

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