By Samir Al Khoury,
United States of America
• The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose, recording a growth of 51.7 points, which exceeded expectations (51.0) and the previous reading (51.3).
• The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index rose, recording a growth of 55.1 points, which exceeded expectations (53.4) and the previous reading (54.8).
• The existing home sales index recorded 4.11 million, which exceeded expectations (4.08M) but lower than the previous reading (4.14M).
• The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index declined, recording 1.3 points, which is lower than expectations (4.8) and the previous reading (4.5).
• The initial jobless claims index recorded 238K, which is higher than expectations (235K) but lower than the previous reading (243K).
• Core retail sales recorded a contraction on a monthly basis of 0.1%, which is lower than expectations (0.2%) but in line with the previous reading.
• The industrial production index rose on a monthly basis, recording a growth of 0.9%, which exceeded expectations (0.3%) and the previous reading (0.0%).
• The Empire State Manufacturing Index in New York State rose, recording a contraction of 6.0%, which was higher than expectations (-12.50) and the previous reading (-15.60).
Eurozone
• The average wage index rose on an annual basis in the first quarter, recording 5.30%, which exceeded expectations (3.20%).
• The headline consumer price index recorded on an annual basis 2.6%, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (4.2%). The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, recorded on an annual basis 2.9%, which is in line with expectations, but lower than the previous reading (7.2%).
• The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index declined, recording a contraction of 45.6 points, which is lower than expectations (48.0) and the previous reading (47.3).
• The services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined, recording a growth of 52.6 points, which is lower than expectations (53.5) and the previous reading (53.2).
United Kingdom
• The Bank of England decided to keep the interest rate of 5.25% unchanged, for the eighth meeting in a row, in line with market expectations.
• The headline consumer price index recorded on an annual basis 2.0%, which is in line with expectations, but lower than the previous reading (3.2%). The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, recorded on an annual basis 3.5%, which is in line with expectations, but lower than the previous reading (3.9%).
• The manufacturing purchasing managers index rose, recording a growth of 51.4 points, which exceeded expectations (51.3) and the previous reading (51.2).
• The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined, registering a growth of 51.2 points, which is lower than expectations (53.0).
• Retail sales increased, registering a growth of 1.3%, which exceeded expectations (-0.9%) and the previous reading (-2.3%).
Switzerland
• The Monetary Policy Committee of the Swiss National Bank decided to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to the level of 1.25%, which was contrary to expectations that indicated keeping the interest rate at the level of 1.50%.
Canada
• The monthly retail sales index recorded a growth of 0.7%, which was in line with expectations but higher than the previous reading (-0.3%).
New Zealand
• The GDP index rose on an annual basis in the first quarter, recording a growth of 0.3%, which exceeded expectations (0.2%) and the previous reading (-0.2%).
Australia
• The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the interest rate at 4.35% unchanged, in line with market expectations.
• The Manufacturing PMI recorded a contraction of 47.5 points, which is a lower percentage than the previous reading (49.7).
• The services PMI recorded a growth of 50.6 points, which is a lower percentage than the previous reading (52.5).
China
• The People’s Bank of China set the 5-year key lending rate at 3.95%, which is in line with expectations and the previous reading.
• The fixed assets investment index decreased on an annual basis, recording 4.2%, which is lower than expectations and the previous reading (4.2%).
• The industrial production index decreased on an annual basis, recording 5.6%, which is lower than expectations (6.2%) and the previous reading (6.7%).
• Retail sales rose on an annual basis, recording 3.7%, which exceeded expectations (3.0%) and the previous reading (2.3%).
• The unemployment rate was 5.0%, which was in line with expectations and the previous reading.
Japan
• The headline consumer price index rose on an annual basis, recording 2.8%, which is higher than the previous reading (2.5%). The core CPI, which excludes food, recorded on an annual basis 2.5%, which is lower than expectations (2.6%) but higher than the previous reading (2.2%).
• The export index rose, registering a growth of 13.5%, which exceeded expectations (10.4%) and the previous reading (8.3%).
• The import index recorded a growth of 9.5%, which is lower than expectations (13.0%) but higher than the previous reading (8.3%).
• The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index declined, registering a growth of 50.1 points, which is lower than expectations (50.6) and the previous reading (50.4).
• The services PMI declined, recording a contraction of 49.8 points, which is a lower percentage than the previous reading (53.8).
The most important events of this week
This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:
• On Tuesday, the markets await the consumer price index in Canada and the consumer confidence index in the United States of America.
• On Wednesday, the indices of new home sales and US crude oil inventories in the United States of America will be released.
• Regarding Thursday, markets are awaiting indicators of basic durable goods orders, gross domestic product, initial jobless claims, and pending home sales in the United States of America.
• Finally, on Friday, the consumer price indices, the unemployment rate, industrial production in Tokyo – Japan, the gross domestic product index in Britain, the core personal consumption expenditures price indices, and the Michigan consumer confidence indices in the United States of America were released.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD:
If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0770, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0653, 1.0616, and 1.0562. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0744, 1.0797, and 1.0834.
GBP/USD:
The pound against the dollar, if it breaks the pivot point of 1.2666, has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2593, 1.2547, and 1.2475. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.2712, 1.2785, and 1.2831.
USD/JPY:
If the pivot point of 158.90 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 158.00, 156.23, and 155.32. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 160.66, 161.58, and 163.34.
GOLD:
If the pivot point of 2346 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2309, 2284, and 2248. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2371, 2407, and 2432.
BRENT CRUDE OIL:
If the pivot point of 84.53 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 82.82, 80.39 and 78.68. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 86.96, 88.67, and 91.10.
US30:
If the pivot point of 39,375 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 39,063, 38,543 and 38,231. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 39,895, 40,207, and 40,727.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
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