Overview

The US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data for December 2025, scheduled for release on Friday, January 9, 2026, at 8:30 PM (Thailand time), is a critical economic indicator that investors worldwide are closely monitoring. This data will serve as a key determinant for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction at the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 28, 2026.

Market consensus expects NFP to fall within the range of +55,000 to +70,000 positions, compared to +64,000 positions in November. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to decline slightly to 4.5% from 4.6%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to increase +0.1% month-over-month and +3.6% year-over-year.

A particularly noteworthy aspect is the labor market pattern termed “Low-Hire, Low-Fire,” which reflects a condition where both new hiring and layoffs remain simultaneously low. This indicates that the labor market is entering a Rebalancing phase—a natural adjustment rather than a crisis. The unemployment rate has risen from 4.0% in January 2025 to 4.6% in November, reaching its highest level since September 2021.

A special factor to consider is the impact of the Government Shutdown—the longest in US history—which caused higher-than-normal distortion in November’s figures. Federal government employees who were temporarily laid off are expected to return to work in December.

Currently, markets assign only a 10-17% probability that the Fed will cut rates in January, with approximately 90% expecting rates to remain at 3.50%-3.75%. Most analysts forecast the Fed will cut rates only 1-2 times throughout 2026.

Impact on Financial Markets

Forex Market (DXY and Major Currency Pairs)

• DXY strengthened to 98.9, the highest level in 1 month, after markets reduced Fed rate cut expectations.
• If NFP > 100,000 positions: The dollar is likely to continue strengthening as this reduces the necessity for rate cuts.
• If NFP 50,000-100,000 positions: Market response may be limited, consistent with the expected slowdown.
• If NFP < 50,000 positions: The dollar may weaken, increasing pressure on the Fed to cut rates.
• EUR/USD continues to weaken due to monetary policy divergence between the ECB and Fed.
• USD/JPY consolidates around 156.65, with focus on US Treasury yield direction.

Gold (XAUUSD)

• Gold trades around $4,450-4,480/oz, having pulled back from the December high of $4,550.
• HSBC forecasts gold could reach $5,000/oz in H1 2026 due to geopolitical risks and rising public debt.
• China has been buying gold for 14 consecutive months, supporting structural demand.
• If NFP is strong: Gold may correct to $4,380-4,400 in the short term.
• If NFP is weak: Gold gains support from rate cut expectations, targeting $4,550-4,600.
• Key Support Levels: $4,381 (October high) and $4,237 (Ascending Triangle breakout).
• Key Resistance Levels: $4,500-4,550 and $4,600.

US Stock Indices (US Indices)

• S&P 500 trades around 6,921-6,944, achieving an All-time high in early 2026.
• Dow Jones surpassed 49,000 points for the first time, closing at 49,266 points.
• Nasdaq Composite corrects from Tech rotation as Mega-cap stocks like Nvidia and Apple face profit-taking.
• Wall Street forecasts S&P 500 year-end 2026: 7,100-8,000 points (up 3.7%-18%).
• Defense stocks surge following Trump’s announcement to increase the defense budget to $1.5 trillion.
• Risks: Elevated valuations, Fed policy uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions.
• If NFP is significantly weak: May trigger recession concerns and pressure equity markets.

Crude Oil (US Oil – WTI)

• WTI trades around $57-62/bbl after prices fell 20% throughout 2025.
• US intervenes in Venezuela, seizing 50 million barrels of oil, creating short-term uncertainty.
• TD Securities forecasts WTI could fall to $48/bbl if Venezuela restores production capacity.
• OPEC+ maintains production freeze policy through Q1 2026.
• Medium-term Bearish Factors: Global supply glut expected to exceed 3 million bpd; Venezuela may increase exports.
• Short-term Bullish Factors: Geopolitical uncertainty; supply chain disruptions.
• 2026 Price Targets: $48-60/bbl depending on the Venezuela situation.

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin trades around $90,000-92,000, in a Consolidation zone.
• BTC has fallen from its All-time high of $126,000 (October 2025), down over 30%.
• Bollinger Bands squeeze indicates potential for a Big move in the near term.
• ETF Outflows exceed $243 million, reflecting institutional investment slowdown.
• If NFP is strong: BTC may correct to support at $85,000-88,000.
• If NFP is weak: Supports BTC recovery on expectations of accommodative policy.
• Key Support Levels: $88,000-90,000 (61.8% Fibonacci).
• 2026 Targets: Analysts forecast $75,000-$225,000 depending on market conditions.

Conclusion

The US employment data for December 2025 will be a crucial variable determining financial market direction in early 2026. Under the “Low-Hire, Low-Fire” labor market pattern, which reflects rebalancing rather than crisis conditions.

For traders, close attention to NFP figures is essential. If data comes in stronger than expected (>100,000), it will support the dollar and pressure gold. However, if weaker than expected (<50,000), it will increase rate cut expectations and support risk assets.

Geopolitical factors, particularly the Venezuela situation and Trump policies, continue to generate market volatility. Investors should manage risk prudently and follow news closely during this period of heightened market sensitivity.

This analysis is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

📘 FACEBOOK VERSION

📊 US Employment Data 2026: Low-Hire, Low-Fire and Financial Market Direction

Tonight at 8:30 PM, December 2025 NFP data will be released! 🔔

Market consensus expects NFP at +55,000 to +70,000 positions with unemployment dropping to 4.5%. The key focus is the “Low-Hire, Low-Fire” pattern indicating labor market Rebalancing, not a crisis.

🎯 Market Impact:

💵 DXY: Strengthened to 98.9, highest in 1 month. Market assigns 90% probability Fed will hold rates.

🥇 Gold: Trading around $4,450-4,480. HSBC forecasts potential $5,000 in H1. China continues gold purchases for 14th consecutive month.

📈 US Equities: S&P 500 at All-time high, Dow surpasses 49,000 for the first time. Defense stocks surge after Trump increases defense budget to $1.5 trillion.

🛢️ WTI Oil: Ranging $57-62 following US intervention in Venezuela, seizing 50 million barrels.

₿ Bitcoin: Consolidating around $90,000. Bollinger Bands squeeze indicates potential Big move coming.

⚡ Scenario Summary:

• NFP > 100K = USD strong / Gold weak
• NFP 50K-100K = Limited market response
• NFP < 50K = USD weak / Gold supported

🔥 High volatility tonight! Manage risk prudently.

#Taurex #NFP #JobData #ForexTrading #XAUUSD #Gold #Bitcoin #SP500 #WTI #MarketAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #Trading #Forex #CFD #Investment #FinancialMarkets #MarketAnalysis #Trading #Gold

📸 INSTAGRAM VERSION

📊 NFP Tonight at 8:30 PM! 🔔

Market expects +55K-70K positions, Unemployment 4.5%

🎯 Watch: 💵 DXY strong at 98.9 🥇 Gold $4,450 | Target $5,000 📈 S&P 500 All-time high 🛢️ WTI $57-62 volatile from Venezuela ₿ BTC $90K awaiting breakout

⚡ NFP > 100K = USD strong ⚡ NFP < 50K = Gold surges

🔥 High volatility! Manage your risk.

📝 Article by: Chanat Suwannarat

. . . #Taurex #NFP #NonFarmPayrolls #JobData #ForexTrading #XAUUSD #Gold #GoldTrading #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #SP500 #WTI #OilTrading #MarketAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #Trading #Forex #CFD #Investment #DayTrading #SwingTrading #TradingLife #TraderLife #FinancialMarkets #EconomicData #FedWatch #FinancialMarkets #MarketAnalysis #Trading #Gold #Bitcoin #Stocks #Oil #Investment #Trader #Forex