By Samir Al Khoury
The most important events of the past week
United States of America
- The building permits index rose, recording 1.498M, exceeding expectations (1.487M) and the previous reading (1.471M).
- The new home sales index declined, recording 679K, lower than expectations (721K) and the previous reading (719K).
- The Consumer Confidence Index recorded 102.0, higher than expectations (101.0) but lower than the previous reading (102.6).
- The GDP index rose (quarterly), recording 5.2%, exceeding expectations (4.9%) and the previous reading (2.1%).
- US crude oil inventories recorded 1.60 million barrels, exceeding expectations (-0.93M) but lower than the previous reading (8.70M).
- The core PCE price index recorded 3.5% on an annual basis, in line with expectations but below the previous reading (3.7%).
- The initial jobless claims index recorded 218K, lower than expectations (220K) but higher than the previous reading (211K).
- The pending home sales index recorded -1.5% on a monthly basis, exceeding expectations (-2.0%) but below the previous reading (1.0%).
- The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI recorded a contraction of 46.7 points, lower than expectations (47.6) but in line with the previous reading.
Eurozone
- The headline CPI fell year-on-year, recording 2.4%, lower than expectations (2.7%) and the previous reading (2.9%). The core CPI also decreased on an annual basis, recording 3.6%, lower than expectations (3.9%) and the previous reading (4.2%).
- The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index recorded a contraction of 44.2 points, higher than expectations (43.8) and the previous reading (43.1).
United Kingdom
- The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose, recording a contraction of 47.2 points, exceeding expectations (46.7) and the previous reading (44.8).
Canada
- The annual GDP index declined (third quarter), recording a contraction of 1.1%, a lower percentage than expectations (0.2%) and the previous reading (1.4%).
- The rate of change in employment in Canada increased, recording 24.9K new jobs, a rate that exceeded expectations (15K) and the previous reading (17.5K).
Japan
- The industrial production index rose, recording a growth of 1%, exceeding expectations (0.8%) and the previous reading (0.5%).
- The retail sales index decreased, recording 4.2%, lower than expectations (5.9%) and the previous reading (6.2%).
- The unemployment rate decreased to 2.5%, lower than expectations and the previous reading (2.6%).
Australia
- The retail sales index declined, recording a contraction of 0.2%, lower than expectations (0.1%) and the previous reading (0.9%).
- The building permits index rose by 7.5%, exceeding expectations (1.4%) and the previous reading (-4.0%).
- The Manufacturing PMI recorded a contraction of 47.7 points, in line with expectations (43.8) but below the previous reading (48.2).
China
- The Manufacturing PMI recorded a contraction of 49.4 points, lower than expectations (49.7) and the previous reading (49.5).
- The non-manufacturing PMI recorded a growth of 50.2 points, lower than expectations (51.1) and the previous reading (50.6).
- The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose by 50.7 points, exceeding expectations (49.3) and the previous reading (49.5).
The most important events of this week
This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:
- Today, the indicators of retail sales in Australia and factory orders in the United States of America will be released.
- On Tuesday, the markets await the interest decision issued by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), amid expectations that it will keep the interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.35%. The services PMI is also issued in Australia, the Eurozone, Britain, and the United States of America, the Caixin services PMI in China, and the producer price index in the Eurozone, in addition to the non-manufacturing PMIs issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and JOLTS job openings in the United States.
- As for Wednesday, the markets are awaiting the interest decision issued by the Central Bank of Canada, amid expectations that it will keep the interest rate unchanged at the level of 5.00%. It releases the GDP in Australia, the Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index in Britain, the indicators of change in non-farm private sector jobs issued by ADP, and the US crude oil inventories in the United States of America.
- As for Thursday, the indices of exports and imports in China, the indices of the rate of change in employment and gross domestic product in the Eurozone, the initial jobless claims in the United States of America and building permits in Canada will be released.
- Finally, on Friday, the average wages and gross product indices in Japan, the NFP non-farm jobs report, the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and Michigan Consumer Confidence in the United States of America will be released.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD:
If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0908, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0800, 1.0720, and 1.0612. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0989, 1.1097, and 1.1177.
GBP/USD:
If the pound against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.2673, it has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2614, 1.2527, and 1.2468. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.2759, 1.2818, and 1.2905.
USD/JPY:
If the pivot point of 147.68 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 145.70, 144.67, and 142.69. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 148.72, 150.70, and 151.73.
GOLD:
If the pivot point of 2048 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2023, 1976, and 1952. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2095, 2120, and 2167.
BRENT CRUDE OIL:
If the pivot point of 80.79 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 76.83, 74.79, and 70.83. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 82.83, 86.79, and 88.
US30:
If the pivot point of 35,985 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 35,632, 34,962 and 34,609. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 36,655, 37,008, and 37,678.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
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