Last week saw the release of several important economic indicators. U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 222,000, while crude oil inventories increased slightly by 0.244 million barrels. Durable goods orders came in strong, growing by 9.2%. New home sales improved to 724,000 units, and the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 points. Meanwhile, the Services PMI declined to 51.4 points, and existing home sales dropped to 4.02 million units. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered 52.2 points. In the Eurozone, the manufacturing sector showed a softer contraction at 48.7 points, while the services sector slipped to 49.7 points.
In the U.K., both the manufacturing and services PMIs declined to 44.0 and 48.9 points respectively, though retail sales improved by 0.4%. In Australia, the manufacturing and services PMIs fell to 51.7 and 51.4 points, respectively. In Japan, the manufacturing PMI contracted to 48.5 points, while the services sector expanded to 52.2 points, and Tokyo’s consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3.4%. Meanwhile, in China, the People’s Bank of China kept its one-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.10% and its five-year rate at 3.60%, in line with expectations.
Market Analysis
AUD/USD Pair
The AUD/USD exchange rate reached 0.6439 on Tuesday, April 22, 2025 — its highest level since December 10, 2024. The pair has risen approximately 9% from its April 9, 2025 low of 0.5913 to its recent high, and is up about 3% year-to-date. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 58 points, signaling bullish momentum for the AUD/USD pair. The MACD indicator also shows a bullish crossover between the blue MACD line and the orange Signal Line, reinforcing the positive trend.
Microsoft
Microsoft’s stock has declined by about 7% year-to-date. Markets are awaiting the company’s earnings report on Wednesday, April 30, 2025, with expectations of earnings per share (EPS) of $3.16, compared to the previous reading of $2.94. Revenue is expected to reach $69.84 billion, up from $61.86 billion previously. The RSI is currently at 56 points, suggesting positive momentum for the stock. Additionally, the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover between the MACD and the Signal Line, further supporting the bullish outlook for Microsoft’s stock.
Gold
Gold prices continue to reach new record highs, hitting $3,500 last week. The yellow metal has risen by about 18% from its April 7 low of $2,957 to the peak recorded last week. Gold is also up roughly 26% year-to-date and is currently trading above the $3,300 level. The RSI is currently at 62 points, indicating continued bullish momentum. The MACD also shows a bullish crossover between the MACD and the Signal Line, supporting the ongoing upward trend.
Nasdaq 100 Index
The Nasdaq 100 Index rose about 6% last week, driven by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China and President Trump backing down from removing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Despite last week’s gains, the index remains down approximately 8% year-to-date. The RSI currently stands at 55 points, signaling positive momentum. Likewise, the MACD shows a bullish crossover, reinforcing the positive outlook for the Nasdaq 100.
Key Events This Week
Markets are closely watching several major economic releases and events this week:
- Tuesday: U.S. Consumer Confidence and Job Openings data.
- Wednesday: Japan’s Industrial Production, Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), China’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone GDP, U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, U.S. GDP, U.S. Core PCE Price Index, U.S. Pending Home Sales, U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, and Canada’s GDP.
- Thursday: Bank of Japan interest rate decision (expected to keep rates steady at 0.50%). Also, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Construction Spending, and ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released.
- Friday: Eurozone CPI data, along with the U.S. Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
