Last week delivered a mixed set of global economic data. The United States showed relative strength in overall economic activity despite signs of cooling in the labor market. Manufacturing and services PMIs, including ISM indices, recorded strong expansion levels, the highest since 2022, while consumer confidence improved. This came alongside a notable rise in job cuts, weaker private sector hiring, and a decline in job openings. In the euro area, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged amid ongoing weakness in the industrial sector, easing inflation, and declining retail sales, reflecting persistent growth pressures. In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England also held rates steady, with a notable split within the Monetary Policy Committee, while PMI data showed broad improvement except for the construction sector, which remains in contraction. Switzerland posted relatively positive data with stronger retail sales and improved economic activity, while Canada saw a lower unemployment rate despite weak employment growth. In Australia, the rate hike and strong PMI readings, particularly in services, supported a positive economic outlook. Japan recorded weaker household spending, offset by improved activity in manufacturing and services. In China, divergence persisted, with official data signaling contraction while Caixin indices showed modest improvement, highlighting ongoing uncertainty around the pace of China’s economic recovery.
Market Analysis
USD / JPY
The US dollar–Japanese yen pair reached 157.25 on Friday, its highest level since January 23, 2026, and closed at 157.18, with a broadly neutral performance since the start of the year. Recent Japanese economic data point to weaker economic performance, as consumer prices, industrial production, and household spending declined. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 56, indicating moderate bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a bullish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line, supporting continued positive momentum for the pair.
McDonald’s
McDonald’s shares are up around 7% year to date. Markets are awaiting the company’s earnings release on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, with expectations for earnings of USD 3.03 per share, compared to USD 2.83 in the previous quarter. Revenues are expected to reach USD 6.80 billion, up from USD 6.39 billion previously. The RSI is currently at 73, placing the stock in overbought territory and signaling strong positive momentum. The MACD also shows a bullish crossover, reinforcing the positive outlook for the stock.
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices declined by around 2.5% last week after five consecutive weeks of gains, closing near USD 68 per barrel on Friday. The pullback was driven by easing geopolitical tensions and ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as talks between Ukraine and Russia aimed at reaching a truce or ceasefire. The RSI currently stands at 58, indicating continued bullish momentum, while the MACD shows a bullish crossover, supporting a constructive outlook for oil prices.
FTSE 100 Index
The UK’s FTSE 100 continues to advance, reaching 10,482 points on Wednesday, February 4, 2026, its highest level on record. The index is up nearly 5% year to date, outperforming other European benchmarks such as France’s CAC 40, Germany’s DAX, and the STOXX 600. This strong performance is largely driven by the Bank of England’s decision on February 5 to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%. Notably, four out of nine MPC members voted in favor of a rate cut, compared to expectations that only two would do so. This split has reinforced expectations of rate cuts later in the year, providing bullish support to UK equities. The RSI stands at 63, and the MACD shows a bullish crossover, confirming positive momentum for the index.
Key Events This Week
Markets are closely watching several important economic releases this week:
- Tuesday: US retail sales data.
- Wednesday: China’s consumer and producer price indices, US private nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and US crude oil inventories.
- Thursday: UK GDP and industrial production data, along with US initial jobless claims and existing home sales.
- Friday: Eurozone GDP and US consumer price index data.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
