Last week saw the release of a range of important global economic data. In the United States, the picture was mixed: crude oil inventories rose sharply, exceeding expectations, while inflation eased with declines in both headline and core consumer price indices. Retail sales slowed, recording zero monthly growth, yet the labor market remained resilient, with job gains surpassing expectations, a lower unemployment rate, and higher wages, despite a slight increase in jobless claims and a decline in existing home sales. In the euro area, economic performance remained stable, with GDP growth in line with expectations. In the UK, data pointed to relative weakness, with GDP growth below expectations and a sharp contraction in industrial production. In China, inflationary pressures remained subdued as consumer price growth slowed, while producer prices showed a modest improvement despite remaining in contraction territory, highlighting ongoing challenges in the world’s second-largest economy.
Market Analysis
USD/SGD
The US dollar fell to 1.2604 against the Singapore dollar on Thursday, its lowest level since January 28, 2026, before closing Friday at 1.2628. The pair is down around 2% year-to-date. Recent data suggest that the Singaporean economy continues to show resilience.
An additional factor supporting the Singapore dollar has been broad-based US dollar weakness, as markets price in the possibility of three US interest rate cuts this year, weighing on the greenback. Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s independence has also increased amid political pressure from US President Donald Trump on incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ahead of his term, alongside expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance to support the economy ahead of midterm elections. This is compounded by market anticipation of a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of global tariffs by February 20, 2026.
Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 34, indicating negative momentum for USD/SGD. A bearish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line further reinforces the downside momentum.
Walmart
Walmart shares have risen around 20% year-to-date. Markets are awaiting the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release on Thursday, February 19, 2026. Earnings per share are expected at USD 0.72, compared with USD 0.66 in the previous quarter.
Revenue is forecast at USD 190.41 billion, up from USD 180.55 billion previously. The RSI currently stands at 73, signaling strong positive momentum, while a bullish MACD crossover supports a constructive outlook for the stock.
Gold
Gold prices rose for a second consecutive week, closing Friday at USD 5,042, up around 17% year-to-date. Fundamental and technical indicators continue to support gold prices going forward. Key drivers include ongoing political pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, heightened geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US–Iran relations amid ongoing negotiations, and market expectations for three US rate cuts this year.
In addition, global central banks—led by the People’s Bank of China—continue to increase gold purchases to bolster reserves. This coincides with investor outflows from long-dated government bonds, including US, UK, French, German, and Japanese debt, amid selling pressure and rising yields driven by fiscal concerns and widening deficits. These dynamics reinforce gold’s role as a safe haven and inflation hedge. The RSI currently stands at 56, indicating positive momentum.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 1.34% last week, closing at 49,438 points. Nevertheless, the index remains up around 3% year-to-date, highlighting the continued outperformance of value stocks over growth stocks. By comparison, the S&P 500 fell about 0.14%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped around 2.05%.
Outlook expectations remain positive for US equities despite elevated valuations, supported by several factors:
• Strong economic performance in the United States.
• Market expectations for three US interest rate cuts this year.
• Solid corporate earnings results for the most recent quarter reported so far.
• Easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.
From a technical perspective, the RSI stands at 52, indicating moderately positive momentum, while a bullish MACD crossover supports a constructive outlook for the index.
Key Events This Week
Markets are closely watching several important economic releases this week.
On Monday, attention turns to GDP and industrial production data from Japan, GDP figures from Switzerland, industrial production in the euro area, and CPI data from Canada.
On Tuesday, markets will follow unemployment and income data (including bonuses), Canada’s CPI, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index from New York.
On Wednesday, focus will be on the interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with expectations for rates to remain unchanged at 2.25%. UK CPI data will also be released, alongside US durable goods orders and industrial production.
On Thursday, markets will monitor Australia’s unemployment rate and employment change, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the US goods trade balance, pending home sales, weekly jobless claims, US crude oil inventories, and Canada’s trade balance.
Finally, on Friday, markets will watch Japan’s CPI, manufacturing and services PMIs from Australia, Japan, the UK, the euro area, and the United States, UK retail sales, US GDP and core personal consumption expenditure prices, new home sales, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and Canadian retail sales.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
