Last week saw the release of several important global economic indicators. In the United States, Producer Price Index data came in broadly in line with expectations, while retail sales fell below forecasts. Consumer confidence declined to its lowest level since April 2025. Meanwhile, pending home sales and core durable goods orders increased, jobless claims dropped, and crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly. In Switzerland, Q3 GDP contracted more than expected, while Canada recorded strong quarterly GDP growth. In Australia, annual inflation came in higher than expected, and Tokyo inflation in Japan saw a slight increase. In China, industrial profit growth slowed to 1.9%, marking the first deceleration in three months.
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Currency Pair
The USD/JPY pair rose for the third consecutive month, closing at 156.13 on Friday. Expectations point to continued positive momentum for the pair in the near term due to several key factors: geopolitical tensions between Japan and China, economic weakness in Japan, and the government’s expansionary fiscal policy. Prime Minister Sanae Takaishi recently launched the largest stimulus package since the COVID-19 pandemic, amounting to $136 billion. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 60, indicating bullish momentum.
Salesforce
Salesforce stock has declined by around 31% year-to-date. Markets are awaiting the company’s earnings release on Wednesday, December 3, 2025, with expectations of earnings per share of $2.86, compared to $2.41 previously. Revenues are projected to reach $10.27 billion, up from $9.44 billion in the prior reading. The RSI currently stands at 42, indicating bearish momentum. The MACD also shows a bearish crossover between the MACD line (blue) and the Signal line (orange), reinforcing the negative outlook.
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive month, touching $60.96 last Tuesday— their lowest level since October 21, 2025—before closing at $62.31 on Friday. Prices have dropped around 17% year-to-date. Key downward pressures include potential progress toward ending the Russia–Ukraine war, abundant supply from non-OPEC+ producers, weak economic data from major oil-importing countries such as China (weighing on global demand), rising Iranian oil shipments stored at sea to their highest level since 2023, and a 2.774-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories last week. The RSI currently stands at 44, signaling bearish momentum. The MACD also shows a bearish crossover, reinforcing the likelihood of continued selling pressure.
Nasdaq-100 Index
The Nasdaq-100 rose about 5% last week; however, its monthly performance remains negative at –1.64% after seven consecutive months of gains. The index closed Friday at 25,435 points. The VIX volatility index fell below 16, its lowest level in a month. Expectations remain upbeat for continued positive momentum in U.S. equities despite stretched valuations, supported by stronger-than-expected earnings from most U.S. companies—especially mega-cap tech firms tied to AI, known as the “Magnificent 7”—and rising market bets (85% probability) of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 10 meeting. The RSI currently reads 56, indicating bullish momentum. The MACD shows a bullish crossover, supporting the upward trend in the Nasdaq-100.
Key Events This Week
Markets are awaiting several important economic indicators this week:
• Monday: Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China; Manufacturing PMI in Australia, the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S.; U.S. Construction Spending; ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• Tuesday: Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI); U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS).
• Wednesday: Australia GDP; Caixin Services PMI in China; Services PMI in Australia, the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S.; Switzerland CPI; U.S. Industrial Production; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; U.S. Crude Oil Inventories.
• Thursday: UK Construction PMI; U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims; Canada Ivey PMI.
• Friday: Japan Household Spending; Eurozone Employment Change and GDP; Canada Employment Change and Unemployment Rate; U.S. Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure); U.S. Factory Orders; University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
