Crude oil prices rose to $72.21 per barrel today, marking their highest level since July 31, 2025. This represents a gain of around 20% from the low recorded on January 7, 2026, at $59.80, to the peak reached yesterday at $72.21. Oil prices are also up approximately 19% since the start of the year, after having posted a negative performance last year with a decline of nearly 19%. Prices are currently trading above the $72 per barrel level.
The Oil Volatility Index (OVX), commonly referred to as the “fear gauge” of the oil market, reached 57.20 points yesterday, up by around 10%, and is currently hovering near 57 points. This indicates a notable rise in volatility, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical developments between the United States and Iran, and growing anticipation of potential U.S. military strikes against Iran.
The primary driver behind this sharp rise is the escalation of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, alongside cautious market anticipation of a possible U.S. strike inside Iran. In addition, concerns have intensified over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for the global energy market, through which roughly 20% of global oil demand and more than a quarter of seaborne oil trade pass. These risks have added a significant geopolitical premium to prices.
In this context, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 9.014 million barrels last week, a much larger draw than market expectations of 1.700 million barrels, and a sharp reversal from the previous reading, which showed an increase of 8.530 million barrels.
On the other hand, a key factor continues to weigh on oil prices, namely ample supply from non-OPEC+ producers, particularly the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.
From a technical perspective, a bullish crossover, commonly known as a “golden cross,” has emerged between the 20-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting the potential continuation of the upward trend in crude oil prices. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 65 points, reflecting strong bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the positive directional movement index (DMI+) stands at around 28 points, compared to roughly 12 points for the negative directional index (DMI-). The wide gap between the two indicates strong buying pressure. Most importantly, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is nearly 36 points, confirming that the upward trend is strong.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
