The United States witnessed a week filled with significant economic data. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 50.3, below expectations and the previous reading, while the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, indicating improvement in the labor market. In contrast, Challenger data revealed that job cuts in October were the highest for October since 2003, reflecting ongoing pressure in certain sectors. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 5.202 million barrels; a sharp upside surprise compared to negative expectations. Meanwhile, PMI data came in mixed: the Manufacturing PMI posted growth at 52.5, beating expectations, whereas the ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted to 48.7, below forecasts. In the services sector, the Services PMI came in at 54.8, below expectations but above the previous reading, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, exceeding expectations. Overall, this combination of figures reflects a divergence between labor market strength and certain demand indicators, alongside signs of weakness in manufacturing. Globally, Eurozone PMIs showed slight improvement, the Bank of England maintained rates with a notable split among committee members, Swiss inflation continued to slow, and Canada recorded strong job gains with a decline in unemployment. PMI readings across Australia and Japan ranged between expansion and contraction. Meanwhile, China saw declines in imports, exports, and manufacturing activity, along with a slight improvement in services and a small rise in inflation, highlighting a general economic slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.
Market Analysis
AUD/USD
The Reserve Bank of Australia decided last Tuesday to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.60% as expected, while recent Australian economic data continues to show weakness. The AUD/USD pair reached 0.6458 on Wednesday, November 5, marking its lowest level since October 17, 2025. The pair has dropped about 2% from its October 29 high of 0.6618 to Wednesday’s low, though it remains roughly 5% year-to-date and is currently trading near 0.6500. The RSI stands at 44, suggesting bearish momentum. The MACD also shows a bearish crossover between the MACD line (blue) and the signal line (orange), reinforcing downside pressure.
Cisco Systems
Cisco Systems’ stock has gained approximately 20% year-to-date. Markets are awaiting the company’s Q3 earnings release on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, with expectations of earnings at $0.97 per share versus $0.91 previously. Revenue is expected to reach $14.77 billion, up from $13.80 billion in the prior reading. The RSI currently stands at 52, indicating positive momentum.
Gold
Gold prices have been trading sideways between $3,900 and $4,050 for the past two weeks, seeking a clear directional breakout. Prices have fallen about 11% from the October 20 high of $4,382 to the October 28 low of $3,887. Despite the U.S. Dollar Index breaking above the psychological resistance of 100 to hit 100.36 on Wednesday, November 5—its highest level since May 29, 2025—several structural factors continue to support gold, including persistent central bank buying. Kazakhstan’s central bank led purchases in Q3, while Brazil’s central bank resumed gold buying for the first time in over four years. Additional support stems from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and between the U.S. and Venezuela and increasing political pressure from President Donald Trump on the Federal Reserve amid internal divisions regarding monetary policy. Inflation remains near 3%, above the 2% target. Ongoing trade tensions involving the Trump administration and other countries also keep tariffs at the forefront. Investor confidence in major fiat currencies such as the dollar, euro, yen, and pound continues to weaken. The RSI is hovering near 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 declined by roughly 3% last week, closing at 25,060 on Friday, November 7, 2025. The drop is attributed to elevated valuations in AI-related tech stocks, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, divisions within the Federal Reserve, and mixed comments from Fed officials regarding potential rate cuts in December. Fed Chair Powell also struck a cautious tone last week, downplaying the certainty of a December rate cut. Nevertheless, the index remains up about 19% year-to-date. The RSI stands at 48, pointing to bearish momentum, while the MACD shows a bearish crossover, supporting the negative outlook.
Key Events This Week
Markets are awaiting several important economic releases this week.
On Tuesday, the U.K.’s average earnings data (including bonuses) and unemployment figures are due, along with new loan data from China.
On Thursday, markets await Australia’s employment and unemployment data, U.K. GDP and industrial production figures, Eurozone industrial production, and U.S. CPI and crude oil inventory data.
The week concludes on Friday with China’s house price index, fixed-asset investment, retail sales, industrial production, and unemployment data, in addition to Eurozone GDP.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
