Silver continues its upward trajectory, recording $40.85 today — its highest level since September 2011 — and is currently trading above the $40.00 mark. The metal has surged about 44% from its April 7, 2025 low of $28.36, reaching today’s peak. Since the start of the year, silver has climbed around 41%, outperforming risk assets such as Bitcoin and global equity indices — particularly U.S., European, Chinese, and Japanese markets — and even surpassing gold, which is up 32% year-to-date. Market forecasts continue to point toward further upside momentum for silver.
Factors Supporting Silver’s Rally:
Silver prices are currently benefiting from several drivers, including:
- Strong industrial demand for silver, given its use in multiple sectors such as pharmaceuticals, medical supplies, and electronics.
- Positive ETF inflows for the seventh consecutive month — the longest streak since 2020.
- Rising gold prices, which hit $3,509 today, marking its highest level on record.
- Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut U.S. interest rates twice this year, boosting silver’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
U.S. Jobs Data in Focus:
On Friday at 4:30 PM UAE time, markets will be watching the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings data. Forecasts suggest the U.S. economy added 74,000 new jobs in August, compared with 73,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3%, up from 4.2% in July, while average hourly earnings are projected to show monthly growth of 0.3%, unchanged from the prior month.
However, caution is warranted: any upside surprise in payrolls or wage growth, or a lower-than-expected unemployment rate, could weigh on silver and other commodities, while boosting the U.S. dollar — the likely winner in that scenario.
Technical Outlook for Silver:
The prevailing trend for silver appears to remain bullish, supported by the following technical indicators:
- The 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages are aligned in an upward trajectory, with the 20-day average above the 50-day, and the 50-day above the 200-day.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 72, in overbought territory, reflecting strong bullish momentum.
- A bullish crossover in the MACD, with the blue (MACD) line crossing above the orange signal line, further confirms upward momentum.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
