June 29 – July 3, 2026
By Connor Woods, Global Head of Trading Education | 29 June 2026
Key Points
• This week is one of the biggest on the calendar. Nonfarm Payrolls have been moved to Thursday (due to the July 4th holiday), the ECB Sintra Forum on Wednesday features a once in a cycle panel with Fed Chair Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, and BoC Governor Macklem sharing the stage, and ISM Manufacturing plus Eurozone Flash CPI also land on Wednesday. Expect volatility across the board.
• Gold at $4,035 is down for a fourth consecutive week and has lost 27% from its January all time high. The H4 chart shows a clean bearish structure with the $4,170 to $4,200 supply zone capping every bounce. The Weak Low at $3,950 is the next target. A strong NFP print on Thursday could send gold below $4,000 for the first time since February.
• EUR/USD at 1.1399 has hit its lowest level since mid March despite the ECB hiking rates on June 11. The rate gap between the Fed (3.50% to 3.75%) and the ECB (2.25%) remains 125 to 150 basis points in the dollar’s favour. Wednesday’s Eurozone Flash CPI (forecast 3.0%) and the Sintra panel will determine whether the ECB can narrow that gap further.
Last Week in Review
Last week’s headline was the Core PCE print on Thursday, which came in at 0.3% month on month (in line with expectations) but the annual reading jumped to 3.4%, the highest since October 2023. That confirmed what the Warsh dot plot signalled the week before: inflation is not coming down fast enough. The dollar extended its gains, pushing gold below $4,050 and dragging EUR/USD to its lowest level since mid March.
Gold closed the week lower for the fourth consecutive time, falling from $4,117 at last Monday’s open to around $4,035 today. The metal has now lost 27% from its January 28 all time high of $5,589. The structural bull case that drove gold above $5,000 (rate cuts, weakening dollar, geopolitical safe haven demand) has been systematically dismantled by the Warsh Fed. Rising real yields, a surging dollar, and the cancellation of the US and Iran peace talks on June 19 have removed every pillar of support.
EUR/USD followed a similar path, falling from 1.1500 at the start of last week to 1.1399 today. The pair has been in freefall since the FOMC meeting on June 17, despite the ECB hiking rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% on June 11. The problem for euro bulls is simple: even after the ECB hike, the rate differential still favours the dollar by 125 to 150 basis points. Until that gap narrows meaningfully, the euro is swimming against the current.
Gold: Fourth Week of Selling
The H4 chart tells the story of a market in distribution. Gold peaked in the $4,500 area in early June, where the large supply zone (the red/pink shaded area at the top of the chart) has capped every attempt at a rally. From there, price has made consistently lower highs and lower lows, with Break of Structure (BOS) confirmations at $4,350, $4,150, and most recently $3,980 marking each new leg down.
A BOS occurs when price breaks below a previous swing low, confirming the sellers are in control. The fact that we have three consecutive BOS labels on the way down tells us the selling is organised and institutional, not just panic liquidation. The Change of Character (CHoCH) at $4,280 was the structural warning that preceded the FOMC selloff. After that signal, every bounce has been sold into the supply zones.
The immediate overhead resistance sits at $4,170 to $4,200 (the smaller red zone visible on the chart). This is the level gold needs to reclaim to shift the bearish structure. Below, the Weak Low at $3,950 is the next liquidity target. In Smart Money terms, a Weak Low is a level the market has not strongly defended, meaning there are stop losses resting below it. The market tends to sweep these levels, so a push below $3,950 is the most likely scenario before any meaningful bounce.
The RSI confirmed the bearish move with two Bear divergence signals around June 14 to 17 (where price was making higher highs but RSI was making lower highs). That divergence resolved to the downside exactly as expected. RSI now sits around the 40 to 45 area, which is neutral and not yet oversold, meaning there is room for further downside before buyers step in.
Thursday’s NFP is gold’s key event this week. The consensus forecast is 114,000 new jobs, down significantly from last month’s 172,000. If NFP comes in strong (above 150,000), it reinforces the case for the Fed to hold rates high or even hike, which would push gold below the $3,950 Weak Low and potentially toward $3,900. A weak print below 100,000 would be the first crack in the strong economy narrative and could trigger a sharp relief rally back toward $4,170 to $4,200.
EUR/USD: Testing the Floor
EUR/USD at 1.1399 has been in a sustained downtrend since mid June, and the H4 chart shows a textbook bearish structure. The pair traded in a range between 1.1550 and 1.1650 in the first half of June, with multiple Change of Character (CHoCH) signals battling for direction. Equal Highs (EQH) formed at the 1.1600 to 1.1650 area, creating a liquidity pool that the market eventually swept before reversing hard.
The decisive break came after the FOMC meeting, when BOS at 1.1430 confirmed the bearish shift. Since then, every bounce has been sold into the 1.1430 to 1.1470 supply zone (the red shaded area visible on the chart). Price is now trading just above the Weak Low at 1.1350, which is the next logical target for this move. A sweep of that level could extend to 1.1300, which is a major psychological level.
The fundamental backdrop is what makes this setup so challenging for euro bulls. The ECB hiked rates to 2.25% on June 11, but that is still 125 to 150 basis points below the Fed’s 3.50% to 3.75% range. In foreign exchange, money flows toward higher yields, and as long as the Fed holds rates above the ECB, the dollar has a structural advantage. Eurozone headline inflation came in at 3.2% in May (the highest since September 2023), and the Flash CPI estimate on Wednesday is expected at 3.0%. If Eurozone inflation drops back toward 3.0%, it could actually reduce pressure on the ECB to hike again, which would be negative for EUR/USD.
On the other hand, the core CPI reading is forecast at 2.5% (unchanged from previous). If core stays sticky while headline falls, it creates a policy dilemma for the ECB that Lagarde will likely be asked about at the Sintra panel on Wednesday.
The Week’s Events: A Trader’s Roadmap
This is a stacked week, so let me walk through it day by day.
Monday (today) is relatively quiet. ECB President Lagarde speaks at 17:30 UTC, Spanish Flash CPI is released at 07:00 UTC (forecast 3.2%), and UK mortgage approvals and money supply data land at 08:30 UTC. None of these are market movers on their own, but Lagarde’s comments could set the tone ahead of Wednesday’s Sintra panel.
Tuesday brings the first significant data. German Preliminary CPI at 06:29 UTC (forecast 0.1% month on month, previous negative 0.2%) is a leading indicator for Wednesday’s Eurozone Flash CPI. If German CPI surprises higher, expect the euro to get a short term bid as traders adjust their Wednesday expectations. Canadian GDP at 12:30 UTC (forecast 0.4%, previous negative 0.1%) is a bounce back reading that could move CAD. On the US side, CB Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC (forecast 94.2, previous 93.1) and JOLTS Job Openings at 14:00 UTC (forecast 7.28 million, previous 7.62 million) provide context ahead of Thursday’s NFP. A sharp drop in JOLTS below 7 million would signal the labour market is cooling faster than expected.
Wednesday is the biggest day of the week and arguably one of the most important days of the quarter. Three events collide. First, Eurozone Flash CPI at 09:00 UTC (headline forecast 3.0%, previous 3.2%; core forecast 2.5%, previous 2.5%). A headline drop from 3.2% to 3.0% would suggest the ECB’s June hike is working, but sticky core at 2.5% keeps the door open for more. Second, US data: ADP Non Farm Employment at 12:15 UTC (forecast 118,000, previous 122,000) is the private sector jobs preview, followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 UTC (forecast 53.7, previous 54.0) and ISM Manufacturing Prices (forecast 79.0, previous 82.1). If ISM prices drop below 79, it signals input cost pressures are easing, which is disinflationary and supportive for gold. Third, and most importantly, the ECB Sintra Forum Policy Panel at approximately 13:00 UTC. This brings Fed Chair Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, and BoC Governor Macklem onto the same stage. This is Warsh’s first international appearance as Fed Chair, and markets will scrutinise every word for any shift in tone from his hawkish FOMC press conference. If Warsh doubles down on the hawkish message, the dollar rally continues. If he shows even a hint of flexibility, it could trigger a sharp reversal in both gold and EUR/USD.
Thursday is NFP day. Nonfarm Payrolls have been moved forward from Friday to Thursday at 12:30 UTC due to the July 4th holiday. The consensus is 114,000 new jobs (down from 172,000 previously), with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3% and average hourly earnings at 0.3% month on month. The payroll forecast of 114,000 represents a meaningful slowdown. If it comes in above 150,000, the Fed’s hawkish stance is validated and the dollar surges. If it misses below 100,000, it raises the question of whether the economy can handle rates at current levels and opens the door to a policy rethink. What makes this NFP release particularly volatile is the timing: it drops into a pre holiday session with thinner liquidity than usual, which can amplify moves in both directions.
Friday is effectively a half day with most US traders winding down for the July 4th weekend. BoE Governor Bailey speaks at 15:00 UTC and Lagarde speaks at 08:00 UTC, but volume will be light and the market will largely be digesting Thursday’s NFP.
Risk Warning: Trading financial instruments, particularly those involving leverage, involves a substantial degree of risk and is not appropriate for all investors. The value of your investments can rise or fall sharply, and it is possible to lose the entirety of your invested capital. Do not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Nothing in this site should be read or construed as constituting advice on the part of Taurex or any of its affiliates, directors, officers or employees.
