By Samir El Khoury
The most important events of the past week
United States of America
• The headline consumer price index rose year-on-year, recording 3.4%, which exceeded expectations (3.2%) and the previous reading (3.1%). The core consumer price index on an annual basis recorded 3.9%, which is higher than expectations (3.8%) but lower than the previous reading (4.0%).
• The Producer Price Index recorded an annual rate of 1.0%, which is lower than expectations (1.3%) but higher than the previous reading (0.8%).
• The initial jobless claims index fell to 202K, which is a lower percentage than expectations (210K) and the previous reading (203K).
• The US crude oil inventories index rose, recording 1.338 million barrels, which exceeded expectations (-0.675M) and the previous reading (-5.503M).
Eurozone
• The consumer confidence index rose, registering a contraction of 15 points, a percentage that exceeded expectations (-15.1) and the previous reading (-16.9).
• The retail sales index recorded an annual contraction of 1.1%, which was higher than expectations (-1.5%) but lower than the previous reading (-0.8%).
• The unemployment rate declined to 6.4%, which is lower than expectations and the previous reading (6.5%).
United Kingdom
• The GDP index rose on a monthly basis, recording a growth of 0.3%, which exceeded expectations (0.2%) and the previous reading (-0.3%).
Switzerland
• The headline consumer price index rose year-on-year, recording 1.7%, which exceeded expectations (1.5%) and the previous reading (1.4%).
Australia
• The retail sales index rose on a monthly basis, recording a growth of 2%, which exceeded expectations (1.2%) and the previous reading (-0.4%).
China
• The Consumer Price Index rose on an annual basis, registering a contraction of 0.3%, which is a rate that exceeded expectations (-0.4%) and the previous reading (-0.5%).
• The producer price index recorded an annual contraction of 2.7%, which is lower than expectations (-2.6%) but higher than the previous reading (-3%).
• The export index rose by 2.3%, which exceeded expectations (1.7%) and the previous reading (0.5%).
• The import index recorded a growth of 0.2%, which is lower than expectations (0.3%) but higher than the previous reading (-0.6%).
• The new loans index recorded 1,170 billion Chinese yuan, which is lower than expectations (1,400B) but higher than the previous reading (1,090B).
The most important events of this week
This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:
• The industrial production index in the Eurozone will be released today.
• On Tuesday, the markets are awaiting income rates, including bonuses and unemployment, in Britain, the Empire State manufacturing index in New York State in the United States of America, in addition to the consumer price index in Canada.
• On Wednesday, it releases indicators of investment in fixed assets, gross domestic product, industrial production, retail sales, the unemployment rate in China, consumer and producer price indices in Britain, the consumer price index in the Eurozone, in addition to indices of retail sales, industrial production, and US crude oil inventories in the United States of America.
• On Thursday, the rates of change in employment and unemployment in Australia, building permit indicators, initial jobless claims, and Philadelphia manufacturing industries in the United States of America will be released.
• Finally, on Friday, the consumer price index in Japan, retail sales in Britain, the producer price index in Switzerland, retail sales in Canada, in addition to the existing home sales and Michigan consumer confidence indexes in the United States of America will be released.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD:
If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0952, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0905, 1.0862, and 1.0816. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0994, 1.1041, and 1.1083.
EURUSD
GBP/USD:
If the pound against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.2735, it has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2685, 1.2622, and 1.2572. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.2797, 1.2847, and 1.2909.
GBPUSD
USD/JPY:
If the pivot point of 144.89 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 143.38, 141.90, and 140.39. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 146.37, 147.88, and 149.36.
USDJPY
GOLD:
If the pivot point of 2045 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2023, 1995, and 1973. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2073, 2095, and 2123.
XAU
BRENT CRUDE OIL:
If the pivot point of 78.10 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 75.45, 72.61 and 69.96. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 80.94, 83.59, and 86.43.
BRENT
US30:
If the pivot point of 37,766 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 37,495, 37,198 and 36,927. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 38,063, 38,334, and 38,631.
US30
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
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