United States of America
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded an annual growth rate of 2.5%, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (2.9%). The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) recorded an annual growth rate of 3.2%, which matches both the expectations and the previous reading.
- The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased on an annual basis, showing a growth rate of 1.7%, which is lower than expectations (1.8%) and the previous reading (2.1%).
- The initial jobless claims index rose to 230,000, which is higher than the expectations (227,000) and the previous reading (228,000).
- U.S. oil inventories decreased by 0.833 million barrels, which is less than the expectations (0.900 million) but higher than the previous reading (-6.873 million).
- The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 69 points, which is higher than expectations (68.3) and the previous reading (67.9).
Eurozone
- The European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
- The Industrial Production Index on a monthly basis contracted by 0.3%, which is better than expectations (-0.6%) but lower than the previous reading (-0.1%).
United Kingdom
- The unemployment rate recorded at 4.1%, which aligns with expectations but is lower than the previous reading (4.6%).
- The total earnings including bonuses decreased to a growth rate of 4.0%, which is below expectations (4.1%) and the previous reading (4.6%).
- The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on a monthly basis was 0.0%, which is lower than expectations but aligns with the previous reading.
- The Industrial Production Index on a monthly basis contracted by 0.8%, which is worse than expectations (-0.3%) and aligns with the previous reading (0.8%).
Japan
- The GDP index on an annual basis for the second quarter of this year recorded a growth rate of 2.9%, which is below expectations (3.1%) but higher than the previous reading (-2.4%).
- The Industrial Production Index on a monthly basis increased by 3.1%, exceeding expectations (2.8%) and the previous reading (-4.2%).
China
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) on an annual basis grew by 0.6%, which is below expectations (0.7%) but higher than the previous reading (0.5%).
- The Producer Price Index (PPI) on an annual basis contracted by 1.8%, which is worse than expectations (-1.5%) and the previous reading (-0.8%).
- The Imports Index on an annual basis showed a growth rate of 0.5%, which is below expectations (2.0%) and the previous reading (7.2%).
- The Exports Index grew by 8.7%, which exceeded expectations (6.5%) and the previous reading (7.0%).
- The New Loans Index rose to 900 billion yuan, surpassing expectations (810 billion) and the previous reading (260 billion).
- The Fixed Asset Investment Index on an annual basis decreased to 3.4%, which is below expectations (3.5%) and the previous reading (3.6%).
- The Industrial Production Index on an annual basis fell to 4.5%, which is lower than expectations (4.7%) and the previous reading (5.1%).
- Retail Sales on an annual basis decreased to 2.1%, which is below expectations (2.5%) and the previous reading (2.7%).
- The Unemployment Rate rose to 5.3%, which is higher than expectations and the previous reading (5.2%).
Key Events This Week
The markets are anticipating several important economic indicators and data this week:
- Today, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Switzerland, the Average Earnings in the Eurozone, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index in New York City will be released.
- On Tuesday, the markets will be watching the Retail Sales and Industrial Production indexes in the United States, as well as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada.
- On Wednesday, the markets are anticipating the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut with a 50% probability and a 50 basis point cut with a 50% probability. Attention will focus on the speech and tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the future path and pace of interest rates.
Additionally, the Exports and Imports Indexes in Japan, the Consumer and Producer Price Indexes in the UK, the Consumer Price Index in the Eurozone, and the Building Permits and U.S. Crude Oil Inventory indexes will be released.
- On Thursday, the markets will look for the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, with expectations of holding rates steady at 5.00%. Also, the GDP Index in New Zealand, the Employment and Unemployment Change rates in Australia, and the Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and Existing Home Sales in the United States will be announced.
- Finally, the markets will anticipate the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, with expectations of keeping rates at 0.25%. Additionally, the CPI in Japan, the PBOC’s Benchmark Lending Rate, and Retail Sales data for the UK and Canada will be released.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
If the pivot point of 1.1058 is broken, the euro may target support levels at 1.1014, 1.0958, and 1.0914. If the pivot point is exceeded, resistance levels at 1.1114, 1.1158, and 1.1214 could be targeted.
GBP/USD
If the pivot point of 1.3093 is broken, the British pound may target support levels at 1.3028, 1.2936, and 1.2872. If the pivot point is exceeded, resistance levels at 1.3184, 1.3248, and 1.3340 could be targeted.
USD/JPY
If the pivot point of 141.61 is broken, the yen may target support levels at 139.43, 138.09, and 135.91. If the pivot point is exceeded, resistance levels at 142.94, 145.12, and 146.46 could be targeted.
Gold (XAU)
If the pivot point of 2529 is broken, gold may target support levels at 2498, 2471, and 2441. If the pivot point is exceeded, resistance levels at 2555, 2586, and 2612 could be targeted.
Brent Crude Oil
If the pivot point of 73.10 is broken, Brent crude oil may target support levels at 68.57, 66.08, and 61.55. If the pivot point is exceeded, resistance levels at 75.59, 80.12, and 82.61 could be targeted.
US30 (Dow Jones)
If the pivot point of 41010 is broken, the Dow Jones may target support levels at 40451, 39475, and 38916. If the pivot point is exceeded, resistance levels at 41986, 42545, and 43521 could be targeted.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
