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Exploring Russia’s Economic Resilience Amidst Western Sanctions

By Samir Al Khoury,

Despite the ongoing Western sanctions on Russia since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war two years ago, recent economic data from Russia demonstrate the country’s resilience, as:

·        The CPI rose year-on-year in February, reaching 7.7%, its highest level in a year.

·        The industrial production index rose on an annual basis in January, recording a growth of 4.6%, which is higher than the previous reading (2.7%).

·        The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose in February, registering a growth of 54.7 points, its highest level in 7 years.

·        The real wage growth index rose on an annual basis in December, recording 8.5%, which is higher than the previous reading (7.2%).

·        The unemployment rate fell in January to 2.9%, its lowest level ever.

 

Western sanctions have targeted several sectors within Russia, but the most prominent sector remains the oil sector, where a price ceiling was imposed on Russian oil (Ural crude) after Europe was one of the most prominent importers of Russian oil before the war.

 

But Russian oil exports were not affected, as Russia was able to replace its Western customers with Asian customers such as China, India, and Turkey, and sell Urals crude at prices lower than the levels found in the oil market.

 

On Friday, March 22nd, the markets are awaiting the interest decision issued by the Russian Central Bank, amid expectations that it will keep interest rates unchanged at the level of 16.00%.

 

It is worth noting that the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Russian ruble reached an all-time high of 154.25 on March 7, 2022.

 

Currently, it is trading at the 92 levels, with indications of a prevailing horizontal sideways trend, marked by a minimum of 86.63 on January 16, 2024, and a maximum of 95.47 on February 23, 2024.

 

 

Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

Taurex is the trading name of Zenfinex Global Limited, Stochastic Africa SL Ltd, Zenfinex Global LLC, and Zenfinex Limited.

Zenfinex Global Limited is registered in the Republic of Seychelles with registration number: 8428731-1 and is regulated by the Financial Services Authority of Seychelles (license number SD092). Its registered office address is F20, 1st Floor, Eden Plaza, Eden Island, Seychelles.

Stochastic Africa (SL) Limited is a company registered in Sierra Leone with Company Number: SL270319STOCH05271 and is licensed by the Bank of Sierra Leone under license number BSL/SAL/2023 and with the registered office at 148D Wilkinson Road, Freetown, Sierra Leone.

Zenfinex Global LLC is a company registered with the Financial Services Authority in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines under registered number 138 LLC 2019. Its registered office is Hinds Building, Kingstown, Saint Vincent, and the Grenadines.

Zenfinex Limited is a company registered in England and Wales under registered number: 11077380. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under firm reference number 816055. Its registered office is 4th Floor, 4 Eastcheap, London, EC3M 1AE, United Kingdom.

*All trading involves risk.

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