By Samir Al Khoury
The Most Important Events of the Past Week
United States of America
· The headline consumer price index declined, recording 3.2% on an annual basis, which is lower than expectations (3.3%) and the previous reading (3.7%). The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also declined, recording 4.0% on an annual basis, lower than expectations and the previous reading (4.1%).
· The Producer Price Index declined on an annual basis, recording 1.3%, which is lower than expectations (1.9%) and the previous reading (2.2%).
· Core retail sales recorded a monthly growth of 0.1%, exceeding expectations (-0.2%) but remaining lower than the previous reading (0.8%).
· The initial jobless claims index rose to 231K, exceeding expectations (220K) and the previous reading (218K).
· The industrial production index contracted on a monthly basis, recording -0.6%, lower than expectations (-0.3%) and the previous reading (0.1%).
· The building permits index in the United States of America rose, recording 1.487M, exceeding expectations (1.450M) and the previous reading (1.471M).
United Kingdom
· The consumer price index declined on an annual basis in Britain, recording 4.7%, lower than expectations (4.8%) and the previous reading (6.7%).
· The retail sales index decreased on an annual basis, recording -2.7%, a lower percentage than expectations (-1.5%) and the previous reading (-1.3%).
Eurozone
· The consumer price index declined on an annual basis in the Eurozone, recording 2.9%, in line with expectations but remaining lower than the previous reading (4.3%).
China
· The industrial production and retail sales indices in China rose by 4.6% and 7.6%, respectively, exceeding expectations and the previous reading.
Japan
· The GDP index recorded a contraction of -2.10% in the third quarter of this year, a lower percentage than expectations and the previous reading.
The Most Important Events of This Week
This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:
· On Tuesday, Canada’s consumer price index and existing home sales in the United States of America will be released. Markets are also awaiting the release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
· On Wednesday, the indices of durable goods orders and US crude oil inventories in the United States of America will be released.
· On Thursday, the manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indices will be released in Australia, the Eurozone, and Britain, in addition to the initial jobless claims in the United States of America.
· Finally, on Friday, the consumer price indices and manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indices in Japan, along with retail sales in Canada, will be released. Additionally, the manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indices in the United States of America.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD:
If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0828, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0743, 1.0579, and 1.0495. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0992, 1.1077, and 1.1241.
GBP/USD:
If the pound against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.2388, it has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2272, 1.2092, and 1.1975. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.2568, 1.2685, and 1.2865.
USD/JPY:
If the pivot point of 150.19 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 148.48, 147.47, and 145.77. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 151.20, 152.90, and 153.91.
GOLD:
If the pivot point of 1972 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 1948, 1911, and 1887. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2009, 2032, and 2069.
BRENT CRUDE OIL:
If the pivot point of 80.40 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 76.82, 73.03, and 69.45. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 84.19, 87.77, and 91.56.
US30:
If the pivot point of 34,794 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 34,420, 33,829, and 33,455. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 35,385, 35,759, and 36,350.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
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