The USD/CAD pair declined to 1.3635 on Monday, marking its lowest level since March 13, 2026, and is currently trading above 1.3600. The pair has fallen around 0.50% since the beginning of the year and has dropped roughly 2% from its March 31 peak of 1.3967 to Friday’s low of 1.3649.
Recent Canadian economic data reflects resilience in the economy, with the following highlights:
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in March, up from the previous reading of 1.8%.
• Employment change came in at 14.1K jobs, slightly below expectations of 14.5K, but significantly higher than the previous reading of -83.9K.
• The unemployment rate stood at 6.7%, below expectations of 6.8% and in line with the previous figure.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is facing selling pressure against most major currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped to 97.63 on Friday—its lowest level since February 27, 2026—and is currently trading just above 98. This comes amid uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East conflict and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with the ceasefire deadline set to expire on April 21.
Technical factors:
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 35, nearing oversold territory, indicating continued bearish momentum in USD/CAD.
• The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line, supporting the ongoing negative trend.
Support and resistance levels:
• Support levels: If the pivot point at 1.3663 is broken, the pair may target 1.3615, 1.3586, and 1.3538.
• Resistance levels: If the pivot point is surpassed, potential targets include 1.3692, 1.3740, and 1.3769.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
