The most important events of the past week

By Samir Al Khoury,

United States of America

• The headline consumer price index recorded on an annual basis 3.4%, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (3.5%). The core consumer price index (which excludes food and energy) recorded 3.6% on an annual basis, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (3.8%).

• The Producer Price Index rose on a monthly basis by 0.5%, which exceeded expectations (0.3%) and the previous reading (-0.1%).

• Retail sales declined on a monthly basis, recording 0%, which is lower than expectations (0.4%) and the previous reading (0.6%).

• The initial jobless claims index recorded 222K, which is higher than expectations (219K) but lower than the previous reading (232K).

• US crude oil inventories decreased, recording 2.508 million barrels, which is lower than expectations (-0.400M) and the previous reading (-1.362M).

• The building permits index declined, recording 1.440M, which is lower than expectations (1.480M) and the previous reading (1.485M).

• The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index declined, recording 4.5 points, which is lower than expectations (7.7) and the previous reading (15.5).

• The industrial production index declined on a monthly basis, recording 0%, which is lower than expectations and the previous reading (0.1%).

Eurozone

• The GDP index recorded a quarterly growth of 0.3%, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (-0.1%).

• The industrial production index rose on a monthly basis, recording 0.6%, which exceeded expectations (0.5%) and the previous reading (1.0%).

• The headline consumer price index recorded 2.4% on an annual basis, which is in line with expectations and the previous reading. The core consumer price index (which excludes food and energy) recorded on an annual basis 2.7%, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (2.9%).

United Kingdom

• The income rate, including bonuses, was 5.7%, which exceeded expectations (5.3%) but was consistent with the previous reading.

• The unemployment rate was 4.3%, which was in line with expectations but exceeded the previous reading (4.2%).

Switzerland

• The Producer Price Index rose on a monthly basis, recording 0.6%, which exceeded expectations (0.2%) and the previous reading (0.1%).

Australia

• The rate of change in employment increased, recording 38.5 thousand new jobs, which is a rate that exceeded expectations (22.4K) and the previous reading          (-5.9K).

• The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, which exceeded expectations and the previous reading (3.9%).

China

• The fixed assets investment index decreased on an annual basis, recording 4.2%, which is lower than expectations (4.6%) and the previous reading (4.5%).

• The industrial production index rose on an annual basis, recording 6.7%, which exceeded expectations (5.5%) and the previous reading (4.5%).

• Retail sales declined on an annual basis, recording 2.3%, which is lower than expectations (3.7%) and the previous reading (3.1%).

• The unemployment rate decreased, recording 0.5%, which is lower than expectations and the previous reading (5.2%).

Japan

• The GDP index declined on an annual basis in the first quarter, recording a contraction of 2.0%, which is lower than expectations (-1.2%) and the previous reading (0.0%).

The most important events of this week

This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:

• The People’s Bank of China’s key lending rate is released today

• On Tuesday, the markets await the consumer price index in Canada

• On Wednesday, the markets are awaiting the interest decision issued by the Central Bank of New Zealand, amid expectations that it will keep interest rates unchanged at the level of 5.50%. The export and import indices in Japan, the consumer price index in Britain, the existing home sales indices, and the US crude oil inventories in the United States of America are issued, in addition to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

• Regarding Thursday, the markets are awaiting the services and manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices in Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, Britain, and the United States of America, and the indicators of initial jobless claims, building permits, and new home sales in the United States of America, in addition to the consumer confidence index in the Eurozone.

• Finally, on Friday, the consumer price index in Japan, retail sales in Britain, the durable goods orders index and the Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States of America will be released, in addition to retail sales in Canada.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD: 

If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0841, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0788, 1.0711, and 1.0658. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0919, 1.0971, and 1.1049.

GBP/USD: 

The pound against the dollar, if it breaks the pivot point of 1.2638, has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2565, 1.2433, and 1.2361. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.2770, 1.2843, and 1.2975.

USD/JPY: 

If the pivot point of 155.32 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 153.90, 152.17, and 150.75. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 157.05, 158.47, and 160.20.

GOLD: 

If the pivot point of 2394 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2360, 2304, and 2271. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2450, 2483, and 2540.

BRENT CRUDE OIL:

If the pivot point of 83.02 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 82.00, 80.04 and 79.02. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 84.98, 86.00, and 87.96.

US30:

If the pivot point of 39,260 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 38,942, 38,371 and 38,052. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 39,831, 40,150, and 40,720.

Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

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