The USD/NOK pair continues its downward trend, recording a level of 9.2637 yesterday, the lowest level since May 5, 2022, down about 8% since the beginning of the year. The pair is currently trading near the 9.3000 level. Overall, the pair has declined by around 11%, entering correction territory, from the peak recorded on March 31, 2026, at 9.8164 to yesterday’s low at 9.2666.
The main reasons behind the positive momentum of the Norwegian krone are attributed to several factors, most notably the hawkish monetary policy of the Norwegian central bank. The current interest rate in Norway stands at 4.00%, and the currency benefits from interest rate differentials, as Norwegian rates are relatively higher compared with those in other advanced economies, encouraging carry trade activity.
Expectations also suggest that the Norwegian central bank may raise interest rates to between 4.25% and 4.50% by the end of the year, especially as recent Norwegian economic data have shown that the economy remains resilient.
In addition, Norway is one of the world’s largest exporters of energy, particularly oil and gas. Therefore, with energy prices currently rising amid the ongoing war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this development is positively reflected in both the economy and the Norwegian krone.
The Norwegian krone also continues to outperform among G10 currencies against the US dollar, ahead of the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, euro, and finally the Japanese yen.
Technical analysis:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 30 points, placing it in oversold territory, which reflects negative momentum for the USD/NOK pair. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line, supporting the continuation of the pair’s negative momentum.
If the pair breaks below the pivot point at 9.3318, it may target support levels at 9.2310, 9.1585, and 9.0577. However, if it moves above the pivot point, it could potentially target resistance levels at 9.4043, 9.5051, and 9.5776.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
