The USD/SEK pair continues its downward trend, recently recording 9.4641 — its lowest level since April 22, 2022. The pair has dropped by approximately 16% from its January 13, 2025 peak of 11.3216 to the recent low. Since the beginning of the year, the pair has declined by nearly 13% and is currently trading around the 9.6400 level.
Recent Swedish economic data signals a recovery in the economy, as evidenced by:
- Retail sales increased by 0.3% month-on-month, surpassing the previous reading of 0.1%.
- The manufacturing PMI rose to 54.2 in April, exceeding both the forecast (53.1) and the previous figure (53.8).
- Consumer confidence climbed to 83.1 in May, up from 81.8 in the previous month.
A major driver of the USD/SEK decline has been the weakening U.S. economic outlook, with concerns over a possible recession and softening data weighing on the dollar. Additionally, trade tensions — particularly between the U.S. and the EU — have added uncertainty, putting further pressure on the greenback against most major currencies.
Moreover, the Swedish krona has notably outperformed its G10 peers, gaining about 13% against the U.S. dollar since the start of the year, making it one of the best-performing major currencies in 2025.
Looking ahead, analysts are closely watching the release of Sweden’s GDP data on Friday. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce krona strength and further pressure the USD/SEK pair, suggesting caution is warranted.
Technical analysis:
If the pivot point at 9.5900 is broken, the USD/SEK pair could target support levels at 9.5176, 9.4156, and 9.3432. Conversely, if the pair rebounds above the pivot, it may test resistance levels at 9.6920, 9.7644, and 9.8664.
The relative strength index (RSI) is currently at 48, reflecting negative momentum in the pair.
The positive directional movement index (DMI+) stands at 18, while the negative directional movement index (DMI-) is at 22. The wide gap between the two indicates strong selling pressure on the USD against the SEK.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
