The USD/NOK pair continues its downward trend, recording 9.8642 yesterday — the lowest level since January 30, 2023. The pair has declined by approximately 13% year-to-date and is currently trading near the 9.9000 level.
Recent Norwegian economic data indicates that the economy is starting to improve, as shown by the following:
- The monthly Manufacturing Production Index rose by 2.8%, higher than the previous reading of 0.0%.
- The Manufacturing PMI climbed in May to 51.2 points, up from the previous reading of 46.2.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose on a yearly basis in May to 3.0%, compared to 2.5% previously.
- The Current Account balance increased on a quarterly basis to NOK 286.5 billion, up from NOK 203.7 billion.
It’s worth noting that a key factor contributing to the bearish momentum in the USD/NOK pair is the recent slowdown in some U.S. economic indicators, particularly inflation figures. This has fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in the coming period. Additionally, the U.S. dollar has shown weakness against most major currencies.
Analysts are closely watching the upcoming interest rate decision from the Central Bank of Norway, scheduled for Thursday, June 19, 2025, with expectations pointing to a rate hold at 4.50%.
Technical Analysis:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 34 points, indicating negative momentum in the USD/NOK pair.
Meanwhile, the Positive Directional Index (DMI+) is around 9, compared to the Negative Directional Index (DMI-) at approximately 27. The wide gap between the two suggests strong selling pressure on the U.S. dollar against the Norwegian krone.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
