The United States released mixed economic data last week. Initial jobless claims came in lower than expected, while crude oil inventories increased. Purchasing Managers’ Indices showed mixed performance between the manufacturing and services sectors. Meanwhile, labor market data indicated some weakness after the Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a loss of jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, despite continued growth in average wages. In the Eurozone, economic data showed an improvement in activity, with the manufacturing PMI returning to expansion territory and the services PMI rising. At the same time, inflation accelerated to 1.9%. However, retail sales and fourth-quarter economic growth came in below expectations. In the United Kingdom, manufacturing and construction activity declined noticeably, while the services sector remained stable, reflecting divergence across economic sectors. In Switzerland, data pointed to weaker economic activity, with retail sales declining and the PMI remaining in contraction territory, despite slightly higher inflation than expected. In Canada, economic activity improved as the Ivey PMI rose to strong levels. In Australia, the economy recorded stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter despite weaker manufacturing performance, while the services sector remained in expansion territory. In Japan, economic activity improved with stronger manufacturing and services PMIs, although the unemployment rate edged slightly higher. In China, official indicators continued to signal weakness in economic activity, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors remaining in contraction territory. However, Caixin indicators showed a much stronger performance, with a clear acceleration in both manufacturing and services activity.
Market Analysis
USD / JPY
The US dollar / Japanese yen pair reached 158.09 on Friday, its highest level since January 23, 2026, and is up about 0.50% year-to-date. The pair closed at 157.75 on Friday. Although the Japanese yen has historically been considered a safe-haven currency during geopolitical tensions and wars, it has not played that role recently, while the US dollar currently appears to be the only safe-haven currency among major currencies. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 61, indicating bullish momentum for the pair. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line, supporting continued positive momentum.
Oracle
Oracle’s stock has declined by about 22% since the beginning of the year. Markets are awaiting the company’s earnings results on Monday, March 9, 2026.
Analysts expect earnings per share of $1.71, compared with $1.47 in the previous reading. Revenue is expected to reach $16.91 billion, compared with $14.13 billion previously. The RSI currently stands at 46, indicating negative momentum for Oracle’s stock.
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices rose to $94.64 per barrel on Friday, the highest level since September 28, 2023, and are up approximately 53% year-to-date, outperforming other global financial assets such as gold, silver, global equity indices, and bonds. This surge comes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, war, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for the global energy market through which roughly 20% of global oil demand and more than a quarter of seaborne oil trade pass. Expectations suggest that the longer the strait remains closed, the more likely oil prices are to rise significantly and potentially exceed $100 per barrel. It is worth noting that during the Russia-Ukraine war, oil prices reached $138 per barrel. The OVX oil volatility index rose by 24% on Friday, reaching 105.63, its highest level since May 11, 2020, reflecting heightened anxiety in oil markets. In this context, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.475 million barrels, although this was lower than the previous reading of 15.989 million barrels. Commerzbank expects oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and supplies fall by around 20%. A prolonged conflict could also lead to supply disruptions, bottlenecks in aluminum markets, and rising prices. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ alliance decided in its latest meeting to increase oil production by about 206,000 barrels per day, with the increase set to begin in April 2026. The RSI currently stands at 88, placing oil in overbought territory, the highest level since 1981, which signals strong bullish momentum. The MACD indicator also shows a bullish crossover between the blue MACD line and the orange signal line, reinforcing the upward momentum in oil prices.
Dow Jones Index
The Dow Jones Index fell by 3% last week, marking its second consecutive weekly decline. The main reason behind this decline is the ongoing war between the United States and Israel against Iran, which has prompted investors to move away from riskier assets. Additionally, expectations that interest rates may remain higher for longer—or even increase if inflation accelerates—have weighed on sentiment, especially as rising energy prices could further fuel inflationary pressures. At the same time, labor market data showed notable weakness. The Nonfarm Payrolls report recorded a loss of 92,000 jobs, worse than expectations of 58,000 and lower than the previous reading of 126,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, above both expectations and the previous reading of 4.3%, raising concerns that the US economy could move toward stagflation. Technically, the RSI stands at 33, indicating negative momentum. The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover between the blue MACD line and the orange signal line, supporting a negative outlook for the index.
Key Events This Week
Markets are awaiting several important economic indicators this week.
On Monday, China will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI).
On Tuesday, Japan will publish household spending and GDP data, while China will release exports and imports data, and the United States will report existing home sales.
On Wednesday, the United States will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and crude oil inventories.
On Thursday, Canada will publish its trade balance, while the United States will release jobless claims and the trade balance.
Finally, on Friday, the United Kingdom will release GDP and industrial production, the Eurozone will publish industrial production, and the United States will release core PCE prices, GDP, job openings, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, while Canada will release employment change and the unemployment rate.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
