Last week witnessed notable divergence in global economic performance. US data showed mixed signals, with a slowdown in construction spending and a decline in consumer confidence, while the manufacturing PMI improved and crude oil inventories rose significantly, alongside relative stability in the labor market. In the Eurozone, consumer confidence remained weak and services activity slowed, despite an improvement in the manufacturing sector. In the United Kingdom, services activity moderated and retail sales softened, while inflation remained relatively elevated with a slight increase in core inflation. In Australia, data pointed to a slowdown in both manufacturing and services activity alongside a modest decline in inflation, while Japan experienced a moderation in both inflation and economic activity. In contrast, China provided a strong positive signal, as industrial profits surged significantly during the first two months of the year, reflecting improved momentum in industrial activity compared with last year.
Market Analysis
USD/NOK
Norges Bank kept its policy rate unchanged last week at 4.00%, as expected, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. The central bank also signaled the possibility of raising interest rates to between 4.25% and 4.50% by the end of the year. Recent Norwegian economic data indicate that the economy remains resilient.
It is worth noting that Norway is one of the world’s largest energy exporters, particularly oil and natural gas. Therefore, the current rise in energy prices, amid the ongoing war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is having a positive impact on both the economy and the Norwegian krone.
The USD/NOK pair continues its downward trend, closing on Friday at 9.7335, down approximately 3.50% since the beginning of the year.
The Norwegian krone continues to show strong and outperforming performance among G10 currencies against the US dollar, ahead of the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, euro, and finally the Japanese yen.
What is notable is that despite the US dollar strengthening against most foreign currencies, the Norwegian krone is moving against the broader trend for two main reasons: the hawkish monetary policy of Norges Bank and the rise in energy prices.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 56 points, indicating bullish momentum for the pair. The MACD indicator also shows a bullish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line, supporting the continuation of positive momentum for the pair.
Nike
Nike shares have declined by around 19% since the beginning of the year. Markets are awaiting the company’s fourth-quarter earnings results on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, where earnings per share are expected to reach $0.31 compared with $0.54 in the previous reading.
Revenue is expected to reach $11.25 billion, following a previous reading of $11.30 billion.
Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 26 points, placing the stock in oversold territory and indicating negative momentum. The MACD indicator also shows a bearish crossover between the blue MACD line and the orange signal line, reinforcing the negative momentum.
Gold
Gold prices recorded neutral momentum during the past week, closing at $4,493 on Friday. Despite the significant volatility in gold prices, they remain approximately 4% higher since the beginning of the year. There are three main factors currently weighing on the yellow metal:
First: the strength of the US dollar and the rise in US Treasury yields amid inflation concerns.
Second: declining gold purchases by central banks, which are seeking to maintain higher US dollar liquidity.
Third: investors, both individuals and institutions, are liquidating gold positions as it is among the assets that generated profits, in order to cover losses in other assets, particularly equities.
Expectations suggest that once the war ends, gold could resume its upward trend, especially with several supportive factors still in place. These include its role as a hedge against inflation and investors moving away from long-term government bonds such as US, UK, French, German, and Japanese bonds, which are facing selling pressure and rising yields due to declining confidence in fiscal conditions and widening fiscal deficits. This is pushing investors toward gold as a traditional safe-haven asset, in addition to the possibility of central banks resuming gold purchases.
Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 36 points, indicating negative momentum for gold. The MACD indicator also shows a bearish crossover between the blue MACD line and the orange signal line, supporting the negative momentum.
Dow Jones Index
The Dow Jones Index declined by 1.64% last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of losses, officially entering correction territory after falling more than 10% from its peak recorded on February 10, 2026, at 50,517 points to the low recorded on Friday at 45,019 points.
The reasons behind this decline include the ongoing war between the United States and Israel against Iran, prompting investors to exit high-risk assets. In addition, expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer or even increase if inflation accelerates—particularly with continued increases in energy prices—may significantly fuel inflationary pressures. Furthermore, noticeable weakness in the labor market is raising concerns that the US economy could enter a period of stagflation.
Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 27 points, placing the index in oversold territory and indicating negative momentum. The MACD indicator also shows a bearish crossover between the blue MACD line and the orange signal line, supporting the negative outlook for the index.
Key Events This Week
Markets are awaiting several important economic indicators and data releases this week.
On Monday, markets will watch the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index.
On Tuesday, markets will monitor Tokyo CPI, retail sales and industrial production in Japan, the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in China, the UK GDP reading, the Eurozone CPI, as well as US Job Openings and Consumer Confidence data.
On Wednesday, markets will focus on manufacturing PMI readings in Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China, retail sales in Switzerland, the ADP Employment Change report, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and US crude oil inventories.
On Thursday, markets will monitor Switzerland’s CPI, the Challenger Job Cuts report, US initial jobless claims, the US trade balance, and Canada’s trade balance.
Finally, on Friday, markets will watch services PMI readings in Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the Caixin Services PMI in China, as well as the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
