By Samir Al Khoury
The most important events of the past week
United States of America
· The headline consumer price index recorded an annual increase of 3.1%, surpassing expectations of 2.9% but falling below the previous reading of 3.4%. Meanwhile, the core consumer price index saw a 3.9% annual increase, surpassing expectations of 3.7% but aligning with the previous reading of 3.9%.
· The initial jobless claims index declined, recording 212K, which is lower than expectations (219K) and the previous reading (220K).
· The US crude oil inventories rose by 12.01 million barrels, which exceeded expectations (3.30M) and the previous reading (5.52M).
· The retail sales index declined on a monthly basis, recording a contraction of 0.8%, which is lower than expectations (-0.2%) and the previous reading (0.4%). The core retail sales index (which excludes car sales) also declined on a monthly basis, recording a contraction of 0.6%, which is lower than expected (0.2%) and the previous reading (0.4%).
· The Empire State Manufacturing Index in New York State rose, recording -2.40 points, which exceeded expectations (-13.70) and the previous reading (-43.70).
· The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index rose to 5.2 points, which exceeded expectations (-8.0) and the previous reading (-10.6).
· The industrial production index declined on a monthly basis, recording a contraction of 0.1%, which is lower than expectations (0.2%) and the previous reading (0.1%).
· The Producer Price Index recorded an annual rate of 0.9%, which exceeded expectations (0.6%) but was lower than the previous reading (1.0%).
· The building permits index declined, recording 1.470M, which is lower than expectations (1.509M) and the previous reading (1.493M).
· The Michigan Consumer Confidence Index recorded 79.6 points, which is lower than expectations (80.0) but higher than the previous reading (79.0).
Eurozone
· The GDP index on an annual basis (fourth quarter) recorded a growth of 0.1%, a rate that was in line with expectations but exceeded the previous reading (0.0%).
· The industrial production index increased on a monthly basis, recording a growth of 2.6%, which exceeded expectations (-0.2%) and the previous reading (0.4%).
United Kingdom
· The income rate, including bonuses, was 5.8%, which exceeded expectations (5.6%) but was lower than the previous reading (6.7%).
· The unemployment rate decreased, recording 3.8%, which is lower than expectations (4.0%) and the previous reading (4.2%).
· The headline CPI recorded on an annual basis 4.0%, which is lower than expectations (4.1%) but consistent with the previous reading. The core consumer price index on an annual basis recorded 5.1%, which is lower than expectations (5.2%) but consistent with the previous reading.
· The GDP index declined in the fourth quarter, recording a contraction of 0.2%, which is a lower percentage than expectations (0.1%) and the previous reading (0.2%).
· The retail sales index rose on a monthly basis, recording 3.4%, which was higher than expectations (1.5%) but lower than the previous reading (-3.3%).
Switzerland
· The producer price index recorded an annual contraction of -2.3%, which is a lower percentage than the previous reading (-1.1%).
Australia
· The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, which exceeded expectations (4.0%) and the previous reading (3.9%).
· The rate of change in employment recorded 0.5K jobs, which is lower than expectations (26.4K) but higher than the previous reading (-62.7K).
Japan
· The GDP index declined on an annual basis (fourth quarter), recording a contraction of 0.4%, a rate higher than the previous reading (-3.3%).
The most important events of this week
This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:
· The People’s Bank of China’s key lending rate and Canada’s consumer price index will be released on Tuesday.
· On Wednesday, the export index in Japan, the consumer confidence index in the euro zone, and the US crude oil inventories index will be released. In addition, markets are awaiting the release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
· Finally, on Thursday, the services and manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices in Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, Britain, and the United States of America, the consumer price index in the Eurozone and retail sales in Canada will be released, in addition to the indices of unemployment complaints rates and existing home sales in the United States of America.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD:
If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0757, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0710, 1.0647, and 1.0600. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0820, 1.0868, and 1.0931.
GBP/USD:
If the pound against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.2605, it has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2527, 1.2456, and 1.2378. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.2675, 1.2753, and 1.2824.
USD/JPY:
If the pivot point of 150.00 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 149.10, 148.03, and 147.14. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 151.06, 151.95, and 153.02.
GOLD:
If the pivot point of 2022 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 1997, 1971, and 1947. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2048, 2073, and 2100.
BRENT CRUDE OIL:
If the pivot point of 82.62 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 81.58, 79.68 and 78.64. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 84.52, 85.56, and 87.46.
US30:
If the pivot point of 38,601 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 38,190, 37,684 and 37,273. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 39,107, 39,518, and 40,024.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
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