The most important events of the past week

By Samir Al Khoury,

United States of America

• The headline CPI fell year-on-year, recording 3.0%, which is lower than expectations (3.1%) and the previous reading (3.3%). The core consumer price index (which excludes food and energy) recorded an annual rate of 3.3%, which is lower than expectations and the previous reading (3.4%).

• The Producer Price Index rose on an annual basis, recording 2.6%, which exceeded expectations (2.3%) and the previous reading (2.2%).

• The initial jobless claims index declined, recording 222K, which is lower than expectations (236K) and the previous reading (239K).

• US crude oil inventories recorded a decline of about 3.443 million barrels, which is lower than expectations (0.700M) but higher than the previous reading (-12.157M).

• The Michigan Consumer Confidence Index declined, recording 66.0 points, which is lower than expectations (68.5) and the previous reading (68.2).

United Kingdom

• The GDP index rose on a monthly basis, recording a growth of 0.4%, which exceeded expectations (0.2%) and the previous reading (0.0%).

• The industrial production index recorded a monthly growth of 0.2%, which is lower than expectations (0.3%) and the previous reading (-0.9%).

New Zealand

• The New Zealand Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged, with the main interest rate remaining at 5.50%, in line with market expectations.

China

• The headline CPI decreased year-on-year, registering a growth of 0.2%, which is lower than expectations (0.4%) and the previous reading (0.3%).

• The producer price index recorded an annual contraction of 0.8%, which was in line with expectations but higher than the previous reading (-1.4%).

• The export index rose on an annual basis, registering a growth of 8.6%, a rate that exceeded expectations (8.0%) and the previous reading (7.6%).

• The import index decreased on an annual basis, recording a contraction of 2.3%, which is lower than expectations (2.8%) and the previous reading (1.8%).

• The new loans index rose, recording 2,130 billion yuan, which exceeded expectations (1,050B) and the previous reading (950B).

The most important events of this week

This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:

• Today, indicators of gross domestic product, investment in fixed assets, industrial production, retail sales, and the unemployment rate in China are released, in addition to the producer price index in Switzerland, industrial production in the Eurozone, and the Empire State manufacturing index in New York State.

• On Tuesday, the markets are awaiting the retail sales index in the United States of America and the consumer price index in Canada.

• On Wednesday, the markets are awaiting the consumer price index in Britain and the Eurozone, indices of building permits, industrial production, and US crude oil inventories in the United States of America.

• Regarding Thursday, the markets are awaiting the interest decision issued by the European Central Bank amid expectations that it will keep interest rates unchanged at the level of 4.25%. Attention is turning to the speech and tone of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde regarding the interest rate path in the next stage.

It issues indices of exports and imports in Japan, rates of change in employment and unemployment in Australia, rates of income including bonuses and unemployment in Britain, and indices of initial jobless claims and Philadelphia manufacturing industries in the United States of America.

• Finally, on Friday, the consumer price index in Japan and retail sales in Britain and Canada will be released.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD: 

If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0868, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0826, 1.0748, and 1.0706. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0946, 1.0988, and 1.1065.

GBP/USD: 

The pound against the dollar, if it breaks the pivot point of 1.2917, has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2844, 1.2704, and 1.2631. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.3057, 1.3130, and 1.3270.

USD/JPY: 

If the pivot point of 159.02 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 156.23, 154.58, and 151.80. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 160.67, 163.45, and 165.10.

GOLD: 

If the pivot point of 2402 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2374, 2327, and 2300. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2448, 2476, and 2523.

BRENT CRUDE OIL:

If the pivot point of 83.52 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 83.72, 82.40 and 80.80. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 86.64, 88.24, and 89.56.

US30:

If the pivot point of 40,107 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 39,643, 38,985 and 38,521. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 40,765, 41,229, and 41,887.

Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

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