By Samir Al Khoury,
United States of America
• The Empire State Manufacturing Index in New York State declined, recording a contraction of 6.60 points, which is lower than expectations (-5.50) and the previous reading (-6.00).
• The core retail sales index (excluding car sales) rose on a monthly basis, recording a growth of 0.4%, which exceeded expectations and the previous reading (0.1%). The retail sales index also rose on a monthly basis, recording 0.0%, which exceeded expectations (-0.3%) and the previous reading (0.3%).
• The industrial production index recorded a monthly growth of 0.6%, which was higher than expectations (0.3%) but lower than the previous reading (0.9%).
• The building permits index rose, recording 1.446 million, which exceeded expectations (1.400M) and the previous reading (1.399M).
• US crude oil inventories decreased, recording 4.870 million barrels, which is lower than expectations (-0.900M) and the previous reading (-3.443M).
• The initial jobless claims index rose to 243K, which exceeded expectations (229K) and the previous reading (223K).
• The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index rose, recording 13.9 points, which exceeded expectations (2.7) and the previous reading (1.3).
Eurozone
• The European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged, keeping the main interest rate at 4.25%, in line with market expectations.
• The industrial production index on a monthly basis recorded a contraction of 0.6%, which was higher than expectations (-0.9%) but lower than the previous reading (-0.1%).
• The headline consumer price index recorded on an annual basis 2.5%, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (2.6%). The core consumer price index (which excludes food and energy) recorded 2.9% on an annual basis, which is in line with expectations and the previous reading.
United Kingdom
• The headline consumer price index recorded on an annual basis 2.0%, which exceeded expectations (1.9%) but was in line with the previous reading. The core consumer price index (which excludes food and energy) also recorded 3.5% on an annual basis, which was higher than expectations (3.4%) but consistent with the previous reading.
• The income rate, including bonuses, was 5.7%, which is in line with expectations, but lower than the previous reading (5.9%).
• The unemployment rate was 4.4%, which was in line with expectations and the previous reading.
• The retail sales index decreased on a monthly basis, recording a contraction of 1.2%, which is lower than expectations (-0.6%) and the previous reading (2.9%).
Switzerland
• The producer price index declined on an annual basis, recording a contraction of 1.9%, which is a lower percentage than the previous reading (-1.8%).
Canada
• The Consumer Price Index declined on an annual basis, recording 2.7%, which is a lower percentage than the previous reading (2.9%).
• The retail sales index declined on a monthly basis, recording a contraction of 0.8%, which is lower than expectations (-0.5%) and the previous reading (0.6%).
Australia
• The rate of change in employment increased, recording 50.2 thousand new jobs, which is a rate that exceeded expectations (19.9K) and the previous reading (39.5K).
• The unemployment rate was 4.1%, which was in line with expectations but higher than the previous reading (4.0%).
China
• The fixed assets investment index recorded 3.9% on an annual basis, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (4.0%).
• The GDP index declined on an annual basis in the second quarter of this year, recording a growth of 4.7%, which is lower than expectations (5.1%) and the previous reading (5.3%).
• The industrial production index recorded an annual rate of 5.3%, which exceeded expectations (4.9%) but was lower than the previous reading (5.6%).
• Retail sales fell on an annual basis, recording 2.0%, which is lower than expectations (3.3%) and the previous reading (3.7%).
• The unemployment rate was 0.5%, which was in line with expectations and the previous reading.
Japan
• The export index declined on an annual basis, recording 5.4%, which is lower than expectations (6.4%) and the previous reading (13.5%).
• The import index declined on an annual basis, recording 3.2%, which is lower than expectations (9.3%) and the previous reading (9.5%).
• The main consumer price index recorded an annual rate of 2.8%, which is consistent with the previous reading. The core CPI (which excludes food) recorded on an annual basis 2.6%, which is lower than expectations (2.7%) and the previous reading (2.5%).
The most important events of this week
This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:
• The People’s Bank of China’s key lending rate is released today
• On Tuesday, the markets are awaiting existing home sales in the United States of America and the consumer confidence index in the Eurozone.
• On Wednesday, the markets await the interest decision issued by the Central Bank of Canada, amid expectations that it will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points to reach 4.50%. The manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indices are issued in Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, Britain, and the United States of America, and the indices of new home sales and US crude oil inventories in the United States of America.
• Regarding Thursday, markets are awaiting indicators of durable goods orders, gross domestic product, and initial jobless claims in the United States of America.
• Finally, on Friday, the Consumer Price Index will be released in Tokyo – Japan, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index and the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the United States of America will be released.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD:
If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0900, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0851, 1.0823, and 1.0775. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0928, 1.0976, and 1.1004.
GBP/USD:
The pound against the dollar, if it breaks the pivot point of 1.2951, has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2858, 1.2807, and 1.2715. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.3002, 1.3095, and 1.3145.
USD/JPY:
If the pivot point of 157.19 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 155.54, 153.70, and 152.05. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 159.02, 160.68, and 162.51.
GOLD:
If the pivot point of 2427 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2367, 2335, and 2274. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2459, 2520, and 2552.
BRENT CRUDE OIL:
If the pivot point of 83.67 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 81.53, 80.42 and 78.28. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 84.78, 86.92, and 88.03.
US30:
If the pivot point of 40,857 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 40,042, 39,523 and 38,708. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 41,376, 42,191, and 42,710.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
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