Turkish Lira Struggles Against Economic Challenges: A Market Overview

June 27, 2024

By Samir Al Khoury,

The Turkish lira continues to weaken against the US dollar, with the dollar reaching a historic high of 33.0274 lira on Tuesday, June 25, and currently hovering around 32.90 lira per dollar.

Turkey’s annual consumer price index remains very high, at 75.45% in May, exceeding expectations (74.80%) and the previous figure (69.80%). This is the highest level since November 2022.

Recent Japanese economic data indicates weakness in the Turkish economy:

The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 78.3 points in June, down from 80.5.
Retail sales contracted by 1.8% monthly, compared to a slight decrease of 0.2% previously.
Industrial production plummeted by 17.90% in April, contrasting with an 8.00% increase earlier.

Today, markets await the Turkish Central Bank’s interest rate decision, with expectations that it will maintain rates at 50%.

Technically, the upward trend for the dollar against the Turkish lira appears to be continuing, supported by positive momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64 points. The Positive Directional Indicator (+DI) is around 27 points, while the Negative Directional Indicator (-DI) is approximately 11 points, indicating strong selling pressure on the Turkish lira. The Directional Movement Index (ADX) at about 40 points confirms robust upward momentum for the dollar against the Turkish lira.

Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

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