By Samir Al Khoury
The most important events of the past week
United States of America
·        The initial jobless claims index declined, recording 218K, which is lower than expectations (221K) and the previous reading (227K).
·       US crude oil inventories rose by 5.52 million barrels, which exceeded expectations (1.70M) and the previous reading (1.23M).
·       The non-manufacturing purchasing managers index issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rose, recording a growth of 53.4 points, which exceeded expectations (52.0) and the previous reading (50.5).
Eurozone
·       The services PMI recorded a contraction of 48.4 points, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (48.8).
·       The producer price index on a monthly basis recorded a contraction of -10.6%, which is lower than expectations (-10.5%) and the previous reading (-8.8%).
·       The retail sales index declined on a monthly basis, recording a contraction of -1.1%, which is lower than expectations (-0.9%) and the previous reading (0.3%).
United Kingdom
·       The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index rose, registering a growth of 54.3 points, which exceeded expectations (53.8) and the previous reading (53.4).
·       The Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index rose, recording a contraction of 48.8 points, a percentage that exceeded expectations (47.2) and the previous reading (46.8).
Australia
·       The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the main borrowing interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, in line with market expectations.
·       The services purchasing managers index rose, recording a contraction of 49.1 points, a percentage that exceeded expectations (47.9) and the previous reading (47.1).
Canada
·       The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index rose, registering a growth of 56.5 points, which exceeded expectations (55.0) and the previous reading (56.3).
·       The rate of change in employment increased, recording 37.3K new jobs, a rate that exceeded expectations (16.0K) and the previous reading (12.3K).
·       The unemployment rate declined to 5.7%, which is lower than expectations (5.9%) and the previous reading (5.8%).
China
·       The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index declined, recording a growth of 52.7 points, which is lower than expectations (53.0) and the previous reading (52.9).
·       China’s foreign exchange reserves increased, recording 3.219 trillion US dollars, a percentage that exceeded expectations (3.217T) but lower than the previous reading (3.238T).
·       The Consumer Price Index declined on an annual basis, recording a contraction of -0.8%, which is lower than expectations (-0.5%) and the previous reading (-0.3%).
·       The Producer Price Index recorded an annual contraction of -2.5%, which exceeded expectations (-2.6%) and the previous reading (-2.7%).
Japan
·       The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index rose, recording a growth of 53.1 points, which exceeded expectations (52.7) and the previous reading (51.5).
The most important events of this week
This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:
·       On Tuesday, the income rates, including bonuses and unemployment, will be released in Britain, in addition to the consumer price index in the United States of America.
·       On Wednesday, the consumer and producer price indices in Britain, the indicators of the rate of change in employment, gross domestic product, and industrial production in the Eurozone will be released, in addition to the US crude oil inventories index.
·       For Thursday, the GDP in Japan, the rates of change in employment and unemployment in Australia, the GDP and industrial production indices in Britain, the producer price index in Switzerland, the retail sales indices, the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index, the Empire State Manufacturing in New York City, industrial production, and initial jobless claims in the United States of America.
·       Finally, on Friday, the retail sales index in Britain, building permits, producer prices, and Michigan consumer confidence indexes in the United States of America will be released.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD:
If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0766, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0737, 1.0693, and 1.0664. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0810, 1.0839, and 1.0883.
GBP/USD:
If the pound against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.2593, it has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2545, 1.2468, and 1.2420. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.2670, 1.2719, and 1.2795.
USD/JPY:
If the pivot point of 148.80 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 148.03, 146.84, and 146.07. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 150.00, 150.76, and 151.95.
GOLD:
If the pivot point of 2043 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2025, 2013, and 1995. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2056, 2074, and 2086.
BRENT CRUDE OIL:
If the pivot point of 80.42 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 78.39, 74.59 and 72.56. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 84.22, 86.25, and 90.05.
US30:
If the pivot point of 38,679 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 38,379, 38,010 and 37,710. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 39,048, 39,348, and 39,717.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
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