By Samir Al Khoury,
Wheat prices recorded 727.5 US dollars today, their highest levels since July 28, 2023. This marks a significant rise of about 15% since the beginning of this year, when prices were at 630.3 dollars. The challenge now lies in reaching $782.8, the highest level recorded on July 25, 2023.
Several positive factors are contributing to the surge in wheat prices, including:
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Fears of supply shortages
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Adverse weather conditions in Russia, impacting the wheat crop
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Increased demand for wheat, particularly from Egypt—the world’s largest wheat importer—which has seen its wheat imports rise by about 22% in the first quarter
These developments raise important questions: Has global food security entered a stage of danger due to geopolitical tensions and climate change? Will this directly affect inflation, especially in countries that import food commodities?
From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 73 points, indicating that wheat is in the overbought zone. The positive movement index (DMI+) is around 32 points, compared to the negative movement index (DMI-), which is around 8 points. This large gap between the indicators suggests strong purchasing pressure on wheat. Furthermore, the green ADX trend strength index, around 46, indicates strong momentum in this upward trend.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
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