The USD/TRY exchange rate recorded a level of 39.5191 today — its highest level since March 19, 2025, when it reached around 41.00. The pair is currently trading near 39.5140 lira per dollar. The U.S. dollar has gained roughly 12% against the Turkish lira since the beginning of the year, and forecasts suggest that the lira’s weakness may continue in the coming period.
Recent Turkish economic data indicates a continued slowdown, with key indicators as follows:
• The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 35.41% in May, below expectations (36.10%) and the previous reading (37.86%).
• Industrial production fell on a monthly basis, recording a contraction of 5.20% in April, compared to 10.60% previously.
• The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 47.20 points in May, slightly lower than the previous reading of 47.30.
• The current account posted a deficit of $7.86 billion in April — larger than the previous deficit of -$4.09 billion.
Analysts are now awaiting the Turkish Central Bank’s interest rate decision, expected tomorrow, Thursday, June 19, 2025, with forecasts suggesting that rates will be kept steady at 46.00%.
Technical Analysis:
The upward trend in the USD/TRY pair remains dominant, with positive momentum continuing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 76, signaling that the pair has entered overbought territory.
In addition, the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are displaying a clear upward trend: the 20-day moving average is above the 50-day, which in turn is above the 200-day average.
Furthermore, the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover between the blue line and the orange signal line, reinforcing expectations of continued bullish momentum for the pair.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
