United States: Data showed a sharp increase in crude oil inventories by 15.989 million barrels, significantly exceeding expectations. Headline producer prices rose 2.9% year-on-year, while core producer prices increased by 3.6%, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures at the producer level. On the positive side, consumer confidence improved to 91.2 points. Meanwhile, factory orders declined by 0.7% on a monthly basis, and initial jobless claims came in at 212,000. Euro Area: Headline consumer inflation rose 1.7% year-on-year, while core inflation stood at 2.2%. Both readings were lower than previous figures, indicating continued easing in inflationary pressures. Switzerland: GDP grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter, below expectations but an improvement compared with the previous negative reading. Canada: GDP contracted by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, marking a slowdown compared with the prior quarter. Australia: Consumer prices increased by 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and matching the previous reading. Japan: Tokyo consumer inflation rose by 1.8% year-on-year, above expectations but lower than the prior reading. China: The People’s Bank of China kept its one-year and five-year lending rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively, in line with expectations.
Market Analysis
USD/CNH (US Dollar / Chinese Yuan)
The USD/CNH pair continues to decline, reaching 6.8266 on Thursday, 26 February, its lowest level since 24 March 2023. The pair is down around 2% year to date and has fallen nearly 5% from its peak of 7.1534 recorded on 8 October 2025. Expectations point to continued strength in the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, driven by several factors, including China’s ongoing reduction of its US Treasury holdings—cut by half since 2013—the cancellation of US tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump following a Supreme Court ruling, from which China is a key beneficiary, and market expectations of two US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. In addition, the People’s Bank of China is pursuing a policy of supporting the yuan to bolster the domestic economy and maintain financial stability, supported by a record trade surplus of USD 1.2 trillion last year. Rising US public debt, which has reached approximately USD 38.5 trillion, also weighs on the dollar, particularly amid elevated core PCE inflation at 3% and a slowdown in US GDP growth to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, raising concerns about a potential stagflationary environment. The RSI currently stands near 30, indicating oversold conditions and negative momentum, while the MACD shows a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downside outlook.
Broadcom
Broadcom shares are down around 8% year to date. Markets are awaiting the company’s earnings release on Wednesday, 4 March 2026. Earnings per share are expected at USD 2.02, up from USD 1.60 previously, while revenues are forecast to reach USD 19.17 billion, compared with USD 14.92 billion in the prior reading. The MACD indicates a bearish crossover, reflecting negative momentum, while the RSI stands near 42, pointing to mildly negative momentum for the stock.
Gold
Gold rose by 8% in February, marking its seventh consecutive monthly gain, and closed Friday at USD 5,279 per ounce. The metal is up around 22% year to date. Expectations remain for the uptrend to continue in the coming period. Despite some short-term volatility, fundamentals remain supportive, including recent comments by incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh suggesting that technological progress could allow for non-inflationary growth and lower interest rates. Continued strong buying by global central banks, declining investor confidence in public finances—especially in advanced economies, and a shift away from long-term government bonds toward gold as a traditional safe haven amid ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions and inflation risks all continue to underpin prices. The RSI currently stands at 62, indicating positive momentum, while the MACD shows a bullish crossover, supporting the constructive outlook for gold.
FTSE 100 Index
The UK’s FTSE 100 index continues to climb, reaching a record high of 10,936 points on Friday. The index is up around 9% year to date, outperforming other European benchmarks such as the CAC 40, Stoxx 600, and DAX, as well as US equity indices. The rally has been driven by several factors, most notably the strong performance of the UK banking sector, led by HSBC, whose fourth-quarter results exceeded market expectations in terms of revenues and profits. In addition, headline UK inflation eased to 3.0% year-on-year, in line with expectations but below the previous 3.4% reading, reinforcing expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy or up to two rate cuts by the Bank of England this year. UK economic data also surprised to the upside, with a January budget surplus of GBP 30.4 billion, a reduction in the fiscal deficit to GBP 112 billion, stronger PMI readings in both services and manufacturing, and a solid rebound in retail sales. Foreign investment inflows into UK equities, which remain more attractively valued than US markets such as the S&P 500, have further supported the index. Technically, the RSI stands at 76, indicating strong bullish momentum, while the MACD shows a bullish crossover, reinforcing the positive outlook.
Key Events This Week
Markets are closely watching a series of important economic indicators and data releases this week.
Monday: Manufacturing PMI data from Australia, Japan, the UK, the euro area, and the United States, along with the ISM manufacturing PMI in the US.
Tuesday: Euro area consumer price inflation data.
Wednesday: Official and Caixin manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs from China, services PMIs from Australia, Japan, the UK, the euro area, and the US, in addition to the ADP private sector employment report, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and US crude oil inventory data.
Thursday: UK construction PMI, euro area retail sales, US Challenger job cuts, initial jobless claims, and factory orders.
Friday: Euro area GDP and employment change data, US retail sales indicators, the non-farm payrolls report, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and Canada’s Ivey PMI.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
