The US dollar declined against the Swiss franc, recording a level of 0.7601 today, its lowest since 2011, or nearly 15 years. The pair is currently trading near 0.7650 and has fallen by around 4% since the beginning of the year to date.
The Swiss franc’s outperformance against the US dollar is mainly attributed to its status as a traditional safe haven during periods of uncertainty, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, rising tensions between the United States and Iran, and cautious anticipation of a potential US strike inside Iran. In addition, trade tensions between the Trump administration and several countries have intensified, including South Korea, where Trump raised tariffs from 15% to 25% on imported cars, timber, and pharmaceuticals.
Recent Swiss economic data point to resilience in economic performance. Producer prices contracted by 1.6% year on year, an improvement from the previous reading of -1.7%. Retail sales also grew by 2.3% year on year, exceeding the previous reading of 2.2%.
On the other hand, the US dollar is facing broad selling pressure against most major currencies. The US Dollar Index fell to 95.55 yesterday, its lowest level since February 10, 2022, and is down around 2% since the beginning of the year to date. Markets are now awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision today, with expectations pointing to a hold. However, close attention will be paid to the tone of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the decision, particularly regarding the future path of interest rates. This comes as two additional Fed meetings remain in March and April before Powell’s term ends in May, with expectations also leaning toward unchanged rates at those meetings.
Meanwhile, continued pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, along with efforts to appoint a new Fed chair to succeed Powell, could alter the outlook. Regardless of who takes the role, expectations suggest that the pace of rate cuts could be faster, which would likely reinforce the bearish momentum in the US dollar versus the Swiss franc.
Technical factors:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 28, placing it in oversold territory and reflecting persistent negative momentum for the US dollar against the Swiss franc.
A bearish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line is also evident, further supporting the likelihood of continued downside momentum.
Support and resistance levels:
Support levels: If the pivot level at 0.7667 is broken, the pair could target 0.7548, 0.7485, and 0.7366.
Resistance levels: If the pair moves above the pivot level, it may target 0.7730, 0.7849, and 0.7912.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
