September Monthly Outlook: Positioning for the Pivot

Key Points

• Gold sits at $4,430, down from the $4,700 high it touched just before Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole debut. The reversal has brought price back into the $4,300 to $4,380 demand zone that underpinned the entire August rally. This is the level that decides whether the broader uptrend survives September.
• The Dollar Index is trading near 99.50, testing resistance toward the 100 handle after Warsh’s comments reset rate hike expectations higher. A clean break above 100 would be the dollar’s first close above that level in months, while rejection keeps it inside the 97 to 101 range that has held for most of 2026.
• September is the month August was building toward. The RBNZ and Bank of Canada decide policy on the 2nd, Non-Farm Payrolls lands on the 4th, and then the real test arrives: the ECB on the 10th, the Fed on the 16th, and the Bank of Japan on the 18th, three major central banks inside eight days.

August in Review

August was defined by a single moment. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first major address since taking the chair, delivered at Jackson Hole on the 28th, to say inflation remains too high and that better than expected summer readings do not tell him underlying trends have meaningfully improved. He avoided giving forward guidance, styling his approach on a pre financial crisis Fed that gives markets less certainty. Equities held steady on the day, but the bond market moved quickly to price in fresh hike risk, and the dollar caught a broad bid into the final week of the month.

That shift hit precious metals hard. Gold had spent most of August grinding higher from the $4,000 area to a peak near $4,700, driven by safe haven demand that had been overriding the usual inverse relationship with yields. The Jackson Hole reversal broke that run, sending gold back to $4,430 by month end. Silver told a similar story in reverse for longer, surging 20% in August alone on the back of the US Treasury doubling its long bond buybacks, though it too came under pressure into the final days.

Currencies with dovish central bank expectations priced in were squeezed hardest. AUD/USD and NZD/USD both rallied for most of the month, with NZD testing the 0.6000 level and AUD pressing its own strong high near 0.7200, before both reversed sharply once the dollar found its bid. USD/JPY broke back above the closely watched 160.00 level in the final days of the month, the Fed and Bank of Japan policy gap doing the same work it has done for most of 2026.

The month closed with a fresh geopolitical shock. The US and Iran exchanged military strikes for the first time since July, with reports of American action against Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz on the 30th followed by Iranian missile fire at US bases in Jordan on the 31st. Oil pushed higher on the news, and the renewed risk premium looks set to carry into September. Equity markets were mixed across the month, with US indices choppier than the headline numbers suggest and European markets, led by the DAX, holding up better than most.

Gold: Testing the Foundation of the August Rally

Gold’s August was a tale of two halves. The H4 chart shows the first week consolidating around $4,050 to $4,100 before a clean break of structure kicked off a sustained climb, carrying price through $4,200, $4,300 and $4,400 in stages, each pullback finding demand at a progressively higher level. That advance, driven by a genuine breakdown in the usual inverse relationship between gold and Treasury yields, continued largely uninterrupted through the third week of the month, eventually tagging the $4,700 weak high on the 25th as the US 30 year yield held stubbornly near 5.20%.

That changed the moment Warsh spoke. A bearish change of character on the 28th confirmed the reversal from the $4,700 area, and a sharp break of structure sent price falling back to $4,428.93, retracing almost the entire final leg of the rally in a matter of sessions and landing squarely inside the $4,300 to $4,400 demand zone that had underpinned the advance through mid August.

This zone is the one that matters most for September. A hold here, followed by a bullish change of character, would suggest the Jackson Hole pullback was a correction within an intact uptrend rather than the start of a deeper reversal. A clean break below $4,300 would be a more serious signal, opening the door to a retest of the $4,000 strong low that anchored the entire August advance.

The fundamental picture into September is genuinely two sided. Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls is the first major US jobs data since the shock minus 911,000 benchmark revision, and a weak print would reopen the case for rate cuts and could fuel a sharp recovery. A strong print, in line with Warsh’s hawkish framing, would likely extend the pressure. Layer on the ECB, Fed, and BoJ decisions later in the month, plus the unresolved Iran and Hormuz situation, and gold enters September with more genuine two way risk than it has carried in some time.

Chart: Gold (XAUUSD), H4 timeframe (TradingView, SMC)

The Dollar: Testing 100 After Jackson Hole

The H4 chart shows the Dollar Index’s August in three distinct phases. The month opened with a choppy grind lower from just under 100.00, breaking down through consecutive changes of character until the index found a strong low near 98.60 around the 20th, the point of maximum pessimism on the dollar before Jackson Hole changed the picture entirely.

From that low, a sustained sequence of breaks of structure carried the index higher in clean stages through 98.80, 99.00 and 99.20, accelerating sharply once Warsh’s hawkish tone landed on the 28th. The index spiked toward 99.60 before settling to where it sits now, 99.52, consolidating just below the supply zone that begins near 100.00, the level that capped the index earlier in the month and remains the line in the sand for September.

The demand zone between 99.00 and 99.20 is the most recent structural support and the first level to watch if the dollar pulls back from here. Beneath that, the 98.60 to 98.80 area marks the strong low that anchors the entire recovery. A clean break above 100.00 would be the dollar’s first close above that level in months and would confirm the Jackson Hole move has genuine follow through.

The fundamental picture into September is genuinely two sided. Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls is the first major US jobs print since the shock minus 911,000 benchmark revision, and will be read as a direct referendum on whether the US labour market is as resilient as the hawkish narrative requires. A strong print clears the path toward a break above 100.00. A weak one would suggest Warsh’s hawkishness is running ahead of the data, and the dollar could give back its August recovery quickly. Beyond the jobs data, the ECB, Fed, and Bank of Japan all meet within an eight day window later in the month, and how the dollar performs against each of its major counterparts through that stretch will likely set the tone for the final quarter of the year.

Chart: US Dollar Index (DXY), H4 timeframe (TradingView, SMC)

What to Watch in September

A quick guide to every major event this month and what it could mean for markets.

RBNZ Official Cash Rate (Wednesday 2 September)

A hike from 2.50% to 2.75% is currently priced in, one of the more aggressive moves from a G10 central bank this year. The accompanying statement and press conference are likely to matter as much as the headline decision for NZD/USD, which has already pulled back sharply from its August high near 0.6000.

Bank of Canada Rate Decision (Wednesday 2 September)

The BOC is expected to hold at 2.25%. Landing the same day as the RBNZ decision, this makes the 2nd one of the busiest central bank sessions of the month, with knock on effects likely for broader risk sentiment and the US Dollar Index.

US Non Farm Payrolls (Friday 4 September)

The first major US jobs print since the shock minus 911,000 benchmark revision. The forecast is 58,000, a rebound from the prior negative 23,000 reading, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.1%. This release will be read as a direct test of Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish framing from Jackson Hole. A strong print supports the dollar and pressures gold, while a weak one could trigger a sharp reversal across both.

The Iran and Hormuz Question

The US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time since July at the end of August, with American action against Iranian rocket launchers followed by Iranian missile fire at US bases in Jordan. Oil pushed higher on the news. If the situation escalates further, expect renewed pressure on energy prices and a fresh safe haven bid for gold. If it cools, the recent risk premium could unwind quickly. This remains the biggest wildcard on the calendar.

ECB Rate Decision (Thursday 10 September)

The Governing Council meets in Berlin with fresh macroeconomic projections alongside the rate decision. This is the first of three major central bank meetings inside eight days, and sets the tone for how the euro trades into the Fed and BoJ decisions that follow.

FOMC Rate Decision (Wednesday 16 September)

The single biggest event of the month. This is Fed Chair Warsh’s first rate decision since his hawkish Jackson Hole debut, complete with the Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. Markets will be watching whether his rhetoric translates into an actual hike or whether the committee holds while keeping the door open. Either outcome will set the direction for the dollar, gold, and equities into the final quarter.

Bank of Japan Rate Decision (17 to 18 September)

USD/JPY broke back above the closely watched 160.00 level in the final days of August, and the BoJ meets just days after the Fed decision. A hike, or even hawkish commentary, would work directly against the carry trade dynamic that has driven the pair higher for most of 2026. A hold with no fresh guidance would likely let the trend continue.

UK Data and BOE Commentary

BOE Governor Bailey is scheduled to speak on 4 September, the same day as US Non Farm Payrolls. With UK data continuing to feed into the broader sterling narrative, his tone on the labour market and inflation outlook is worth watching alongside the bigger US release that day.

US CPI (Friday 11 September)

August’s inflation print lands a week after Non Farm Payrolls and four days before the Fed decision, making it the last major data point Warsh sees before he has to act. A hotter than expected reading would lock in the hawkish case built at Jackson Hole and add further pressure on gold. A softer print would hand the doves fresh ammunition just before the FOMC meets, and could trigger a sharp reversal in both the dollar and gold.

UK CPI (Wednesday 16 September)

UK inflation data lands on the same day as the FOMC decision, a coincidence that could make for a genuinely volatile session for GBP crosses. With the BOE having held off on further easing, this print will shape whether the Bank has room to move at its next meeting. A hot reading keeps rate cuts off the table, while a soft one reopens the case for easing just as the Fed’s own decision hits the wires hours later.

Key Dates

All times shown in UTC.

View our economic calendar here for the full schedule of events and their potential market impact.

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